TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBM ACE 25/08/2009 / 富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 25日

FBM ACE 25/08/2009
As indicated by A, the FBMACE remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, closing 18.73 points or 0.4% lower on Tuesday. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic resistance for the FBMACE. Resistance for the FBMACE remains at 4398 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) while the 4031 FR is still the support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width has not expanded clearly for the FBMACE is trading at a narrow range. This suggests that the FBMACE has not formed a downtrend, but remains in its consolidation with some negative biased. In other words, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands, with the FBMACE below the Bollinger Middle Band, the FBMACE would form a downtrend.

As circled at B, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish territory. This suggests that the short term movement of the FBMACE is weakening, and the weakening shall continue unless the Stochastic could break above 30% level.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram continues to decline, while no Rounding Bottom is sighted yet, this suggests that the FBMACE is not gaining any strength at the moment. Meanwhile, the MACD line is also falling gradually,while getting closer to the zero level. If the MACD line should break below the zero level, it would be a signal suggesting a weakening of the mid term movement.

Despite negative signals from Secondary Indicators (such as MACD and Stochastic), the FBMACE has not formed a downtrend, because the Bollinger Bands (a Primary Indicator) has not signaled any bearish movement for the FBMACE yet. Therefore, the priority of the analysis should be based upon the Bollinger Bands, and investors are asked to monitor the changes of the Bollinger Bands Width closely. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expands clearly, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement, and the FBMACE would have to break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to regain its positive position, other wise, there is a risk of a downtrend formation.
富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 25日
如图中箭头A所示，富时大马创业板周二继续处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，按日下跌18.73点或0.4%，所以布林中频带继续是创业板的动态阻力线（Dynamic Resistance）。创业板阻力水平继续是4398点的费氏线，支持水平则依然是4031点的费氏线。
由于创业板连日在窄幅中交易，所以布林频带未能真正打开，这表示创业板还未形成跌势，只是维持于偏弱的盘整格局中。无论如何，接下来只要布林频带明显打开，而创业板继续处于布林中频带以下，创业板将有下跌的风险。

如图中B圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）进一步的下跌，继续处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里，这表示创业板短期的走势已经属于疲软，若接下来随机指标还是未能上扬突破30%水平，那创业板短期的后市将继续看淡。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续下滑，所以还未形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），这表示创业板目前依然还未出现转强的讯号。另一方面，平均乖离线（MACD Line）逐渐下滑，而且开始接近零轴，若平均乖离线跌破零轴进入负值区，那将是创业板中期的走势开始转弱的讯号。

虽然辅助指标（Secondary Indicators）如随机指标及平均乖离振荡指标都显示创业板有偏弱的讯号，但主要指标（Primary Indicator）布林频带依然未能确认创业板转弱，所以投资者应该以布林频带为依归，密切留意布林频带打开时的讯号，当布林频带明显打开时便是创业板开始新走势的讯号，惟创业板必须先上扬突破布林中频带，方可转强，否则将继续有下跌的风险。