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Thursday, August 13, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 12日 / Composite Index 12/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 12日
如图中箭头A所示,由于隔夜道指下挫,亚太股市及富时综合指数也跟随下滑,所幸的是综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带这动态支持线成为综指当前的主要支持线,综指当前的阻力则仍然是1200点的费氏线。
如图所示,虽然综指下滑,不过布林频带(Bollinger Bands)还是呈收窄的状况,这表示综指依然未有明确的趋势讯号,无论如何,接下来若综指跌破布林中频带,综指转强的机率则会下降。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量在综指下滑的当儿依然成功保持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这显示虽然有投资者选择追随区域股市下滑而套利离场,惟另一部分的投资者则选择趁低吸纳,所以市场出现了拉锯战,综指后市还是有待进一步的确认。
如图中箭头C所示,随机指标(Stochastic)下滑至70%的水平,这表示综指短期有转弱的迹象,换句话说若随机指标短期内未能保持在70%以上的话,那综指的短期走势将有进一步转弱的风险。
总的来说,布林频带仍然是收窄,所以综指下跌5.74点并未破坏综指盘整的格局,接下来若布林频带开始打开,综指才能确认摆脱横摆巩固的僵局,届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指新的趋势。
Composite Index 12/08/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI and the Bourses across the Asian Pacific ended lower, as pulled down by the overnight losses of the Wall Street. Fortunately, the KLCI was precisely supported on Bollinger Middle Band (BMB), therefore, BMB would be the KLCI primary dynamic support line; on the other hand, resistance remains at 1200 pt psychological resistance.
On the technical chart above, the Bollinger Bands is still narrowing, this shows that the KLCI movement is still unclear. However, should the KLCI fall below the BMB, chances for the KLCI to turn stronger will be reduced.
As indicated by B, though KLCI slipped 5.74 pt, volume traded in Bursa Malaysia was still able to maintain above 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this is an indication that some investors choose to take profit as regional markets are falling, while there are also some investors doing the opposite, to buy on bargain. As the result of this seesawing action, the KLCI outlook remains undetermined.
As indicated by C, the Stochastic declines to 70% level, this indicates that the KLCI short term trend is showing some weakening signs. On the other hand, if the Stochastic should fail to maintain above 70%, the KLCI will be unable to maintain the short term uptrend.
Overall, with the Bollinger Bands still contracting, the KLCI remains in consolidation stage; technically, the KLCI will only move away from the consolidation when the Bollinger Bands begins to expand, and the relative position of KLCI against Bollinger Middle Band will determine the new trend.

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