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Monday, August 24, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 24日 / Composite Index 24/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 24日
富时综合指数在上周五美国道指扬升的带领下上扬10.70点,如图中箭头A所示,综指精确的达到布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)。由于布林中频带是综指当前的动态阻力线(Dynamic Resistance),这意味综指目前正受到布林中频带的阻力,若综指能突破此阻力线,综指将有望摆脱综指跌破布林中频带的下跌讯号。
布林频带(Bollinger Bands)开始收窄(-3%),所以综指的跌势得以停止,并出现技术反弹。接下来若布林频带继续收窄,综指将进入一个横摆巩固的格局。综指当前的支持水平落在1163点的费氏线,阻力水平则是1186点的费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量上扬15.1%,惟还是低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示投资者未完全恢复信心,所以综指的涨幅也相对的低于区域股市。一般上,成交量必须达到40天平均值,综指上扬的趋势讯号才更持久及更有效。
随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破30%,所以综指出现了技术反弹,这是综指短期走势转强的讯号。无论如何,由于这只是一个短期的讯号,再加上布林频带收窄,所以综指暂时只能算是出现技术反弹,并不能算是完全摆脱下跌趋势的讯号。
布林频带开始收窄显示综指开始有进入调整巩固的迹象,若综指随后突破布林中频带,再加上布林频带开始打开的话,这将形成一个布林频带转势的上扬讯号。目前综指达到布林中频带的水平也意味着综指将面对布林中频带的动态阻力,所以在布林频带未打开前,综指的后市还是处于不明确的格局。无论如何,外围大势因素尤其是道指的走势依然左右综指的走势,所以综指后市将是一个集内在及外围因素影响下的局势。

Composite Index 24/08/2009
On Monday, the FBM KLCI gained 10.70 points, lead by the strong gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index on last Friday, and the KLCI is now precisely resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, as indicated by A. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic resistance for the KLCI. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would break away from its short term downtrend.
The Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting that the KLCI is rebounding from its downtrend. If the Bollinger Bands Width should further contract, the KLCI is likely to consolidate. Support for the KLCI is at 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) while the resist is at 1186 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 15.1%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the investors confidence about the market is yet to recover, and as a result, the KLCI gained less on Monday if compared to other regional markets. Generally, volume has to be above the 40-day VMA level in order to sustain any positive movement of the KLCI.

The KLCI technically rebounded as the Stochastic breaks above 30% level, this shows that the KLCI might be able to regain some strength. However, with the Bollinger Bands Width still contracting, the rising of the Stochastic can only be viewed as a technical rebound signal, not a bullish signal.


The contraction of the Bollinger Bands suggesting that the KLCI is likely to consolidate. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall improve. If the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band with the Bollinger Bands Width re-expanding, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI is regaining its strength. Nevertheless, the KLCI is still testing its dynamic resist of the Bollinger Middle Band, and until a valid break out, the current outlook is still on the 'wait and see' status. On the other hand, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average still trending up, the positive regional markets sentiment is likely to have positive effect on the KLCI performance.

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