TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 20/08/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 8月 20日

Composite Index 20/08/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded 7.90 pt today, to close at 1163.43 pt, returning to above the 1163 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), this means 1163 pt is back to become support level of the KLCI, while the immediate resistance is 1183 pt FR.

As shown in the chart, the Bollinger Bands expanded only 9% from the previous 41%, this means that the correction of the KLCI had slowed down, and should the Bollinger Bands begins to narrow, the downtrend of the KLCI would end, and the KLCI could consolidate. Normally the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, then only the KLCI will have a chance to pick up some strength.

As pointed by B, volume traded decreased 21.8% as investors are being cautious about the outlook of the KLCI, the reduced volume is a classic scenario during the KLCI correction state. Actually, if volume traded was too high during a correction state, it means that the selling pressure is too high, and it is usually harder for the KLCI to turn stronger in the short term.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded as the short term movement of the KLCI was over-sold; however, the Stochastic still need to break above 30%, in order to confirm that the KLCI has recovered from the recent down trend; and if the Stochastic should break above 70%, the KLCI would be entering a short term up trend.

The KLCI had a technical rebound as the rate of the Bollinger Bands expansion has reduced; however, it is still inadequate to confirm the KLCI is breaking away from the downtrend, unless the KLCI is successfully returning to above the Bollinger Middle Band. On the other hand, if the Stochastic should break above 30%, this should mark the end of short term down trend, and therefore, the Stochastic is another suitable indicator to monitor.
综合指数 2009年 8月 20日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数出现技术回弹，上扬7.90点，以1163.43点闭市，从新返回1163点费氏线（Fibonacci Retracement）水平，这意味着1163点再度成为综指的支持水平，阻力水平则落在1183点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度减少至9%，这是综指跌势步伐缓慢下来的讯号，接下来只要布林频带继续收窄，综指将有望止跌，出现巩固的格局。通常综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带，综指才有望出现转强的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量进一步减少21.8%，这是投资者谨慎看待综指后市所致，这也是成交量在综指调整时的典型状态；其实若成交量在综指下调时过高，这反而是跌势汹涌的讯号，对综指短期内恢复转强不利。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）开始反弹，这是综指在超卖后的技术反弹，然而随机指标仍然须上扬突破30%的水平，综指的短期走势才能被确认转强；接下来若随机指标上扬突破70%，综指才能再度进入短期涨势。

由于布林频带打开的幅度减低，所以综指出现技术反弹，惟这并不足以确认综指完全摆脱跌势，除非综指接下来能上扬突破布林中频带。另外若随机指标能上扬突破30%也意味着综指短期的走势有望转强，所以也成为了接下来投资者必须密切关注的指标。