TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 10日 / Composite Index 10/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 10日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数上扬3.12点，使到综指再次的处于1186点的费氏线以上，由于1186点费氏线是综指一道重要的阻力水平，所以若综指能持续的维持在1186点费氏线以上，这将对综指的后市转强有利。接下来若综指能企稳在1186点，综指将有望上探1200点的心理阻力水平。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands） 收窄2%，继续维持一个收窄的情形，这表示综指仍然处于盘整格局中。由于布林频带收窄了一段时日，这表示综指酝酿的走势有望在布林频带开始打开时出现，届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将决定综指新走势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）一路向下移，不过成交量依然未能达到40天平均值的水平，这表示市场仍然淡静，投资者继续的以旁观居多。投资者正在等待新的指引，以及更明确的讯号，所以这使到综指仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）跌破零轴，这表示综指的走势仍然未出现上扬的格局。通常振荡指标必须开始上扬，才能形成一个圆底（Rounding Bottom）的讯号，届时平均乖离才算是发出短期上扬的确认讯号。

综指继续的1186点的阻力水平遇阻，惟综指在闭市前成功的突破阻力，处于1186点费氏线以上，然而综指接下来必须持续的保持在1186点以上，综指才能算是成功的突破了此阻力。布林频带收窄显示综指依然处于调整巩固的格局，所以综指的走势仍然不确定，通常是必须等到布林频带打开，才能确认综指下一个趋势的方向。

Composite Index 10/08/2009

As indicated by A, KLCI closed 3.12 higher, this had helped the KLCI to closed above the 1186 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR) again. 1186 pt FR is an important resistance, therefore, with the KLCI remains above the 1186 pt, this indicates that the KLCI would have a chance to regain some strength, technically, should the KLCI continue to stay above 1186 pt, the KLCI would have chance to test the 1200 pt psychological resistance.

Bollinger Bands contracted 2%, this shows that the Bollinger Bands is still in a contracting mode, and as a result, the KLCI continued its consolidation. The narrowed Bollinger Bands also indicates the KLCI is preparing for a new trend; when Bollinger Bands is widening, the KLCI new trend would be determined by the relative position of KLCI and Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, though 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA) is still declining, volume traded is still unable to reach 40 days VMA, this shows the overall market is still relatively quite, as investors are still mostly side lined. In fact, investors are still waiting for new indications and some fresh leads, and therefore, the KLCI to remain in the consolidation stage.
As circled by C, the MACD Histogram broke into the negative territory, this indicates that the KLCI is yet to have any confirmed sign of up trend. Usually, the Histogram has to start rising, and form a Rounding Bottom, then only is the confirmation signal of the KLCI short term uptrend.

KLCI tested the 1186 pt FR today and finally stood above this level; however, the KLCI would have to maintain above the 1186 pt to confirm the break out signal. On the other hand, the narrowed Bollinger Bands indicates that the KLCI is still in consolidation stage; therefore, it is still unclear about the KLCI upcoming trend. Normally, the new trend shall be detected and confirmed when Bollinger Bands re-expands.