TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 26/08/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 8月 26日

Composite Index 26/08/2009
The KLCI closed slightly higher today at 1172.56 pt, with the KLCI resistance remains at 1186 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while 1163 pt FR continue to serve as the support level of the KLCI.

As indicated by arrow A, the KLCI is still supported by 14, 21, 31 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this shows that the KLCI mid and long term trend had yet to show any weakening sign. In other words, should the KLCI continue to be supported by the 14, 21, 31 days EMA, the KLCI long term up trend is still intact, despite the short term correction and consolidation.

Volume traded declined another 10.3%, while remain lower than the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this is due to the quiet market as investors are still waiting some fresh leads. Normally, the volume will stay below 40 days average when the direction of the KLCI is unclear or during a consolidation.

The Stochastic rebounded slightly as the KLCI closed slightly higher; however, the Stochastic is still hovering below 50% (Refer to circle C), this means that the KLCI short term remains weak. Should the Stochastic break below 30% again, the KLCI will begins a new round of short term down trend. Normally after the Bollinger Bands contracted, the Stochastic needs to break above the 70%, in order for the KLCI to embark an up trend.

The KLCI continue to consolidate, as a result of a contracting Bollinger Bands, and this is a sign that the KLCI is preparing for a new trend. In short, the KLCI short term is on a weak trend; while the mid and long term has not shown any weakness yet. However, should the KLCI break blow the 14, 21 ,31 EMA, the mid to longer term movement of the KLCI is likely to turn weak.
综合指数 2009年 8月 26日
富时综合指数稍微回弹，以1172.56点挂收。综指当前的阻力水平依然是1186点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1163点的费氏线。由于综指目前正处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的水平，再加上布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄9%，所以布林中频带对综指的影响暂时并不显著。

如图中箭头A所示，综指目前继续获得14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的扶持，这显示综指的中长期走势并未完全出现下跌的讯号。换句话说，只要综指继续的处于14、21、31天EMA以上，综指的长期走势依然保持在上扬格局中，只是短期出现调整或走弱的讯号。

马股成交量减少10.3%，继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是市场依然淡静的讯号。一般上，在综指缺乏明确的指引或是横摆巩固（布林频带收窄）时，成交量都会低于40天成交量平均值（参考箭头B）。

随机指标（Stochastic）也跟随综指稍微回弹，惟还是低于50%的水平（参考C圈），这显示综指的短期走势仍然趋软，有待进一步改善。接下来若随机指标再度跌破30%的水平，综指的短期走势将再度出现下跌的趋势。通常在布林频带收窄后，随机指标必须上扬突破70%，综指的短期走势才有望出现上扬的格局。

综指继续横摆巩固的走势，所以布林频带亦继续收窄，这也是综指酝酿新趋势的讯号。总的来说，综指的短期走势趋软，惟中长期走势并未确认转弱的讯号。这意味着若综指跌破14、21、31天的EMA，综指将开始中长期下跌的趋势。