TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 17日 / Composite Index 17/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 17日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）终于打开了，但富时综合指数却在此时跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），所以虽然综指终于摆脱了横摆巩固的格局，惟却开始出现跌势，下跌19.52点。换句话说，只要布林频带继续打开，综指将维持下跌的趋势，直到布林频带开始收窄为止。

如图所示，综指也跌破了1186点的费氏线支持水平，所以1186点反过来成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则落在1163点的费氏线，这也是综指历史高峰至今的50%回归线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微下跌2.7%，成交量依然达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场虽然有相当高的卖压，惟趁低吸购的活动也同样的活跃，无论如何，若成交量接下来持续高扯，那将意味卖压日益沉重，这对综指后市有负面的作用。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%，这表示综指的短期走势走软，接着随机指标更跌破30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势形成了下跌的格局，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

久待的布林频带打开讯号终于出现了，这表示综指出现了新趋势的方向指示，由于综指跌破布林中频带，所以布林频带显示当前的综指形成下跌的趋势。一般上，综指将维持在当前的跌势，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低为止。
Composite Index 17/08/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands (BB) finally started to widen, unfortunately, the KLCI broke below the Bollinger Middle Band (BMB) today; and therefore, the KLCI had finally break away from the consolidation stage, only to start an all new down trend. In other words, the KLCI would continue on a downtrend, as long as the Bollinger Bands continue to expand.

As shown in the chart, the KLCI breached the support level of Fibonacci Retracement (FR) at 1186 pt; therefore, 1186 pt had reverted to become a resistance for the KLCI, while the support level of the KLCI is at 1163 FR.

As indicated by B, volume traded was downed 2.7%, but managed to stay at the level of 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), this means the overall selling pressure is high, but bargain hunting is equally active. However, should the volume continue to increase substantially, it means the selling pressure remains high, and the KLCI is likely continue on its current downtrend.

As indicated by C, Stochastic fell below 70%, this indicates that the KLCI short term trend is weakening. At the end of the day, the Stochastic was below 30%, and this is the sign of KLCI short term continue to head south, until the Stochastic could rebound and break above the 30%.

The long waited Bollinger Bands widening signal had finally arrived, this means the KLCI would embark a new trend; unfortunately, the KLCI fell below Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the KLCI formed a down trend. Normally the KLCI will continue on the current downtrend, until the Bollinger Bands should stop expanding.