TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBM ACE 21/08/2009 / 富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 21日

FBM ACE 21/08/2009

As indicated by A, the FBMACE tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Friday, but remained resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is now serving as the dynamic resistance to the FBMACE while the 4398 Fibonacci Retracement (FR) is the next resistance line. Support for the FBMACE is still at 4031 FR.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width still has not expanded, suggesting that the FBMACE consolidation continues while still gearing up for a new movement. Nevertheless, the immediate outlook for the FBMACE is on the negative side as the FBMACE is still below the Bollinger Middle Band.

As circled at B, the Stochastic remains above 30% level, suggesting that the FBMACE has not formed a short term bearish trend. If the Stochastic should maintain above 30% level, the consolidation is expected to carry on. In order to resume its short term uptrend, the Stochastic has to break above 70% level, and maintain above 70% level.

As circled at C, no Rounding Bottom signal is sighted yet at the MACD histogram, this suggests that the FBMACE failed to regain its strength while still consolidating with some bearish tendency.
Ever since the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width, the FBMACE has been consolidating for almost 3 weeks. With absence of positive market news, coupled with the relatively lower market volume, the FBMACE is still gearing up for its new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall be determined by the relative position of the FBMACE against the Bollinger Middle Band.

富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 8月 21日

如图中箭头A所示，富时大马创业板周五一度上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），惟精确的在布林中频带遇阻，按日微扬4.27点或0.1%，所以布林中频带是创业板目前的动态阻力水平（Dynamic Resistance），另一道阻力水平依然落在4398点的费氏线，支持水平则继续是4031点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带依然还未打开，这表示创业板目前还是处于盘整格局中，继续酝酿着新的走势。由于创业板在布林中频带遇阻，这意味着创业板有偏弱的倾向，惟这转弱讯号有待布林频带重新打开的确认。

如图中B圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于30%水平以上，这表示创业板短期还未完全进入跌势。接下来若随机指标能维持在30%水平以上，那创业板有望继续巩固，至于创业板能否恢复涨势，那随机指标就必须上扬突破70%水平，并且保持在70%水平以上。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）还是未能形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），这表示创业板目前还未出现转强的讯号，后市继续处于偏弱的盘整格局，直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆底为止。

创业板自布林频带开始收窄以来，至今已巩固将近3星期。由于市场缺乏利好因素，再加上市场整体成交量偏低，所以在还未得到新的指引之下，创业板将继续酝酿新的走势，等到布林频带重新打开时便是新走势的开始，届时再以创业板与布林中频带的相对位置来判断创业板是涨或是跌。