TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 07/08/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 8月 7日

Composite Index 07/08/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI tested the 1186 Fibonacci Retracement, but profit taking activities pushed the KLCI back to below 1186, and therefore, the 1186 Fibonacci Retracement is still the current resistance for the KLCI while the support is still at 1163 FR..

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 4%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating, while preparing for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand, it would end the consolidation and the KLCI would begin its new movement, but the direction of the new movement shall be determined by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 1.1%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still relatively low, as investors are being cautious while waiting in the sidelines. Generally, to have a healthy rally, total market volume has to be above 40-day VMA level.

The KLCI has been consolidating with low fluctuation for several days, as suggested by the contraction of the Bollinger Bands. Should the Bollinger Bands Width expand, it would be the best timing for the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width would suggest the beginning of the new movement. If the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands Width expands, it would be a bullish movement signal, other wise, if the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band as it expands, it would be a bearish movement signal.
综合指数 2009年 8月 7日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度突破了1186点的费氏线阻力水平，惟综指在套利卖压下，回退至1184点，这表示1186点继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则落在1163点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄4%，这表示综指仍然处于盘整格局，正在酝酿着新的走势。接下来布林频带开始明显的打开时，综指将结束目前调整巩固格局，开始新的趋势，惟综指新走势的方向将取决于综指届时处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的相应位置。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量稍微减少1.1%，所以成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是投资者继续以谨慎的态度看待综指的后市，有者更离场观望所致。通常若综指要转为上扬的趋势，成交量必须增加至40天平均值的水平。

综指以窄幅波动了多日，依然未摆脱调整巩固的格局，这可由布林频带收窄得以确认。接下来布林频带将成为综指何时开始摆脱此盘整的最佳指标，当布林频带开始明显打开时，综指将出现酝酿已久的新趋势，此趋势将由综指处于布林中频带的相应位置来决定。若综指是处于布林中频带以上的话，综指将开始新一轮的涨势，反之，若综指跌破布林中频带，综指则有开始走软的风险。