TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 27日 / Composite Index 27/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 27日

富时综合指数再度收高，以1176.9点闭市，成功守住14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）的水平（参考箭头A）。目前14、21、31天的EMA仍然是综指中长期的支持线，所以只要综指继续维持在此EMA以上，综指的中长期走势将能继续维持在上扬的格局。

综指终于成功上扬突破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），所以综指当前的支持水平除了EMA外，就是布林中频带，综指的另一道支持水平落在1163点的费氏线，阻力水平则仍然是1186点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指上扬，不过马股成交量却进一步减少8%，依然低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这是市场维持淡静的讯号，所以综指目前仍然属于调整巩固中。

随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破50%的水平（参考C圈），这是综指短期走势转强的迹象，无论如何，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）目前处于收窄的情形，所以随机指标得上扬突破70%，综指才能确认出现短期上扬的趋势。

整体上综指缓缓的从跌势中回弹，终于上扬突破了布林中频带，这显示综指有止跌的迹象，惟布林频带目前还是收窄中，所以综指止跌的讯号并未获得确认，直到布林频带再度打开为止。另一方面，14、21、31天的EMA这是综指当前重要的支持线，因为若综指跌破EMA的话，综指的中长期也会开始转弱。

Composite Index 27/08/2009

The KLCI gained 4.34 pt to close at 1176.9 pt, as the result of that, the KLCI successfully stands above the 14, 21, 31 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as indicated by arrow A. Currently the 14, 21, 31 days EMA remain as the mid and long term support level of the KLCI, and therefore, the KLCI will be able to maintain in a mid and long term up trend, as long as the KLCI is able to hold above these EMA.

Besides the EMA, the Bollinger Middle Band (BMB) had become the Dynamic Support of the KLCI, after the KLCI successfully break above the Bollinger Middle Band. The KLCI is also supported by the 1163 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance remain at 1186 pt FR.

As indicated by arrow B, despite the KLCI advanced another 0.4%, volume traded declined 8%, while still below the 40 days Volume Moving Average (40-day VMA level); this shows the overall market is still quiet, and the KLCI remain in a consolidation state.

As circled at C, the Stochastic broke above 50% today, and this is the sign the KLCI short term trend is turning upwards; however, since the Bollinger Bands is remains contracted, the Stochastic need to break above 70%, in order to confirm this short term up trend signal.

All in all, the KLCI is slowly recovering from the downtrend as it finally break above the Bollinger Middle Band; this indicates that the KLCI short term downtrend may come into an end. However, the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggests that this signal has yet to be confirmed, until the Bollinger Bands begins to expand again. On the other hand, the 14, 21, 31 days EMA are important support level of the KLCI, and should the KLCI fall below these EMA, the KLCI mid and long term trend would form a downtrend.

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