TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 18/08/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 8月 18日

Composite Index 18/08/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands (BB) continues to expand 19%, therefore, the KLCI declined further, to close 4.64 pt lower at 1164.41 pt. The support level of the KLCI remains at 1163 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance is at 1186 pt FR.

As shown in the chart above, the KLCI is already below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the expanding Bollinger Bands suggesting that the bearish biased movement of the KLCI continue; in other words, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance, in order to stop declining, before reversing to up trend again.

As indicated by B, volume traded was 1.9% lower compared to previous day, it is just barely touching the level of 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA). This is an early sign of investors turning away from the market, and this is usually normal when the KLCI is on a down trend.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded today after touching the zero level; therefore, the KLCI short term had a technical rebound, after being grossly oversold. Nonetheless, the Stochastic needs to break above the 30% mark, then only it has a chance to break away from the short term down trend.

Technically speaking, the KLCI is on a down trend, it means that the KLCI will continue to fall until Bollinger Bands should begin to contract. For the moment, if the KLCI could stay above 1163 pt or the 14, 21, 31 days Exponential Moving Average, the KLCI would consolidate or move in a sideways manner; otherwise, the KLCI outlook shall remain weak.

综合指数 2009年 8月 18日

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开19%，所以富时综合指数再度下滑，以1164.41点闭市，按日下跌4.64点。综指当前的支持水平依然落在1163点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1186点的费氏线。

如图所示，综指目前已经处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下了，所以布林频带打开意味着综指将进一步的下滑，换句话说，综指必须上突破布林中频带这动态阻力线，综指跌势才有望停止，出现上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微减少1.9%，只勉强的达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示市场的交投量有开始减低的迹象，这是投资者开始有离场的迹象，惟这情形在综指下调时是正常的。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌至零的水平回弹，所以综指短期出现超买后，有望形成技术反弹，惟随机指标必须上扬突破30%，综指的短期走势才能算是真正的开始转强。

总的来说，综指技术上已经处于跌势了，这意味综指将开始下跌，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低以及开始收窄为止。综指唯一能在短期内复原的是继续在1163点的费氏线或14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）上获得扶持，进入横摆巩固的格局，否则综指的后市将看低一线。