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Saturday, August 22, 2009

FBM KLCI >>> Pullback but still above key support

SHARE prices on Bursa Malaysia continued to consolidate within range-bound trading activities for the first three trading days during the week under review. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index (FBM KLCI) continued to stay above its critical support of 1,100 when it closed at 1,163.79 points yesterday.
The FBM KLCI opened marginally lower at 1,186.77 points before slipping down to its intra-day low of 1,168.64. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,169.05 points on Monday, posting a day-on-day gain of 19.52 points, or 1.64 per cent.
Overall market sentiment took a beating on Tuesday when it gapped down at 1,160.84. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,164.41 points, giving a day-on-day loss of 4.64 points, or 0.40 per cent.
The FBM KLCI staged a very mild rebound when it hit its intra-day high of 1,169.32 before easing off to lower levels on Wednesday. It closed at 1,155.53 points, giving a day-on-day loss of 8.88 points, or 0.76 per cent.
Continuing rebounds on the regional stock markets provided the impetus for share prices on Bursa Malaysia rebounding in tandem on Thursday. The market closed at 1,163.43 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 7.90 points, or 0.68 per cent.
Share prices opened higher before giving back almost all of its gains yesterday. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,163.79 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 0.36 point, or 0.03 per cent.
The FBM KLCI fell to close at 1,163.79 points yesterday, posting a week-on-week loss of 24.78 points, or 2.08 per cent.
The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index tumbled 462.54 points, or 4.49 per cent to 9,846.39 level while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia ACE Index lost 100.63 points, or 2.34 per cent, to 4,205.84 level.

Following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:

Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. It stayed below its 10- and 20-day moving averages.
Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index fell below the support of its neutral reference line.
On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend continued to stay below the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.
Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 54.97 per cent level yesterday.

Continuing consolidations over the first three trading days sent the FBM KLCI to its intra-day low of 1,153.97 on Wednesday, staging a re-test of this column's envisaged support zone (1,151 to 1,185 levels).

The FBM KLCI's weekly chart staged a re-test of its immediate downside support (See FBM KLCI's weekly chart - A5:A6) yesterday. It continued to stay above its resistance-turned-support trendline (A3:A4).
Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's daily trend continued to stay above its downside support (See FBM KLCI's daily chart - (B1:B2) yesterday. It continued to stay below its intermediate-term uptrend (B7:B8).
The FBM KLCI's weekly and monthly fast MACDs (moving average convergence divergence) stayed above their respective slow MACDs yesterday. Its daily fast MACD stayed below its daily slow MACD.
The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 54.97 per cent level yesterday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 69.87 and 56.72 per cent levels respectively.

Last week, this column commented that the FBM KLCI was likely to make a final attempt in re-challenging its critical resistance of 1,200. It failed to do that. Instead, the FBM KLCI staged a technical pullback to its intra-week low of 1,153.97 on Wednesday.
Trading focus will continue to centre on second and third liners. Heavyweight index-linked blue-chip will move into their rotational consolidations. The FBM KLCI will move into range-bound trading activities over the five trading days.
Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at the 1,168 to 1,200 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,130 to 1,163 levels.

Support: 1163 / 1150 / 1143 / 1130
Resistance: 1168 / 1177 / 1196 / 1200

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