TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 8月 4日 / Composite Index 04/08/2009

综合指数 2009年 8月 4日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开，这使到富时综合指数上扬8.57点，创下了14个月来的新高水平，综指当前的阻力水平为1186点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则继续的落在1163点。

如图所示，由于布林频带打开的幅度不大（2%），所以综指并未大举上扬，这也是市场仍然缺乏信心所致。无论如何，只要布林频带接下来继续的打开，综指将有望进一步的上扬，直到布林频带再度收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量增加31.8%，惟成交量依然未达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示市场还是缺乏足够的推动力，一般上成交量必须达到40天平均值，综指上扬的趋势才能更持久。

平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）下滑的速度继续减低，这表示综指的技术调整有结束的迹象，若振荡指标形成如箭头C般的圆底（Rounding Bottom），综指将有望出现短期上扬的趋势。

综指始终在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持，所以当布林频带开始打开时，综指开始上扬，无论如何在缺乏足够成交量的支持下，综指涨幅有限，换句话说，若成交量接下来继续增加，再加上布林频带进一步打开，综指的后市将有望更上一层楼。
Composite Index 04/08/2009
As Bollinger Bands begins widening, KLCI made a 14 months new high closing 8.57 pt higher, the KLCI resistance remains at 1186 pt Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the 1163 pt continue as the KLCI support level.

As shown in the chart, the BB only widen 2%, therefore, the KLCI only closed slightly higher, this is the result of the lack of investors confidence. However, should the BB continue to widen, KLCI would have chance to rally, until the BB begins to contract again.

As indicated by B, volume traded increased 31.8%, but it is still unable to reach the level of 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA), as a result, it failed to give the KLCI the sufficient push needed. Normally, volume has to be at the 40 days average volume, if not more, for the KLCI to continuously moving higher.

The rate of MACD Histogram decline continue to reduced, this could be the sign that KLCI correction would end soon; should the Histogram form the Rounding Bottom as indicated by arrow C, the KLCI could begin a short term uptrend.

Since the KLCI has been supported by Bollinger Middle Band (Bollinger Middle Band); therefore, when the BB begins to expand, the KLCI would begin rising. However, without the support from high volume, the KLCI upside is still limited, in other words, should volume begin to increase and together with BB further widening, the KLCI is expected to be on a rally.