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Thursday, August 6, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 05/08/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 8月 5日

Composite Index 05/08/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 17%, and the FBM KLCI failed to continue yesterday's rally. Generally, the Bollinger Bands Width has to expand clearly with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band to confirm the beginning of a new movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 11%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the current market participation is still insufficient, and therefore, the KLCI failed to regain its strength. Volume is one of the major criteria to support any rally, and in short, in order to have a healthy uptrend, volume has to be above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, this shows that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased, despite the KLCI is consolidating, provided that the Stochastic should remain above 70% level.

In conclusion, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is gearing up for a new movement until Bollinger Bands Width should expand clearly, then, we shall determine the direction of the new movement by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands, it would be a bullish biased signal, other wise, a bearish biased signal.

综合指数 2009年 8月 5日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)收窄17%,所以综指未能出现上扬的趋势。通常布林频带必须明显的打开,再加上综指维持在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,综指才能确认形成一个新的涨势。
如图中箭头B所示,成交量减少11.8%,所以成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以下,这显示市场仍然缺乏交投量,所以综指仍然缺少足够上扬的条件,再度进入盘整的格局。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)目前处于70%以上,这表示综指依然维持在盘整的格局,不过由于随机指标并未跌破70%,所以综指仍然有转强的可能。

总的来说,布林频带再度收窄表示综指正酝酿着一个新的走势,而此新走势将在布林频带开始明显打开时出现,届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置维持将决定综指的新趋势:当布林频带打开时,若综指处于布林中频带以上的话,综指将出现上扬的趋势;反之当布林频带打开时,若综指处于布林中频带以下,综指则会形成下跌的走
势。

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