TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 31日 / Composite Index 31/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 31日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数在1163点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持后，周五上扬14.24点或1.2%，继续站稳在1163点的以上，所以1163点继续成为综指的支持水平，这亦是综指自历史高峰下调50%的黄金分割回归线，综指接下来的阻力水平维持在1186点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）还是收窄，惟收窄的幅度已经减低，这以为综指的技术调整有结束的迹象。综指目前依然在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持，所以接下来若布林频带开始打开，综指的技术调整宣告结束，综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加整60%，使到成交量成功的达到了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），所以只要成交量持续维持在40天平均值，这意味市场的成交量已经达到了足以令综指恢复涨势的水平。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram） 却依然下滑，所以综指目前出现上扬的趋势并未获得振荡指标的确认，换句话说，若振荡指标接下来停止下跌，而且开始形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），那综指的技术调整将确定结束，而出现上扬的趋势了。

总的来说，综指目前有再度恢复涨势的条件，惟万事俱备，只欠布林频带打开的东风。所以接下来只要布林频带开始打开，那综指将能再度上扬，先决条件就是成交量也能维持在40天平均值以及振荡指标开始有上扬的痕迹。
Composite Index 31/07/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 14.24 points or 1.2% higher on Friday, after being supported by the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement. Therefore, the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (50% retracement level from the peak of the KLCI) is still the support for the KLCI. Next resistance for the KLCI remains at 1186 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating, but with the rate of contraction has slightly reduced, implying that the consolidation might be coming to an end. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand, it would be an end to the consolidation, and if the KLCI should remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 60%, with volume reaching the 40-day VMA level. If volume should remain above 40-day VMA level, the bullish market sentiment is expected to sustain.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling, while the Rounding Top remains intact, this suggests that the KLCI consolidation remains. If the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom, it suggests the end of the consolidation, and the KLCI could resume its rally.

Generally, the KLCI is set to rally again with healthy market volume, while awaiting for the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, with volume remain above the 40-day VMA level, more upside movement is expected for the KLCI.