TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 16/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 16日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 16/06/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke below the T2 uptrend line, ended its T2 uptrend since March, 2009. However, this does not mean that the KLCI is now entering a downtrend, it is merely a beginning of a technical correction for the KLCI for the Bollinger Bands Width is contracting 6%.
Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1100 level, while the KLCI is now supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. If the KLCI should remain supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the KLCI is likely to consolidate while temporary avoid the risk of entering a downtrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 19% on Tuesday, and therefore, the volume is now below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is lightly participated. If volume should stay below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is less likely to pick up its strength nor to resume its T2 uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic broke below 70% and touching 50% level, suggesting that the KLCI is now having its technical correction. If the Stochastic should continue to slide, more downside movement is expected for the KLCI.
Overall, the local market is having a technical correction, with 605 losers against 148 gainers, as a result, the KLCI broke below the T2 uptrend line. This is merely a technical correction, and not necessary means a beginning of a downtrend. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to contract, the KLCI is expected to consolidate further.

综合指数 2009年 6月 16日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周二跌破T2上升趋势线，这表示综指已经结束了3月以来的T2涨势。不过，这并不代表综指立刻进入跌势，这是因为布林频带还是处于收窄的状况（收窄6%），这显示综指目前处于调整巩固格局。
综指目前的支持落在14、21、31天加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average）动态支持线，阻力水平则依然是1100点。接下来若综指继续在14、21、31天综指加权移动平均线获得扶持，那综指有望继续维持目前巩固格局，暂时幸免进入跌势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量进一步减少19%，所以成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场目前的交投开始减少，这意味市场有步入淡静格局的迹象，接下来若成交量继续维持在40天的成交量平均值以下，那综指将难以转强，更难以恢复T2的上扬格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破70%水平，并且下滑至50%水平。这表示综指已开始技术调整的格局，接下来若随机指标继续下滑，那综指短期走势将有进一步走软的风险。

马股周二纷纷出现调整，下跌股项高达605只，综指也因技术调整3个月来第一次跌破T2上升趋势线。无论如何，这并不代表综指已开始跌势，只是技术调整而已。接下来若布林频带继续收窄，综指将维持于目前调整巩固格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。由于综指处于布林中频带的水平，换句话说若综指短期内未能反弹，那综指将继续转弱。