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Thursday, June 11, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 11日 / Composite Index 11/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 11日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)再度打开11%,而综合指数继续处于布林中频带以上,所以综指继续上扬格局,按日涨5.99点或0.6%,一般上只要布林频带继续打开,综指上扬格局有望维持下去,直到布林频带开始收窄为止。
综指突破1077点胜图自动费氏线阻力水平,所以下一道阻力水平将落在1100整数点,支持水平则继续是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)及T2上升趋势的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量稍微减少2.2%,但还是处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上,这表示目前市场的交投还是活跃,若成交量能够维持在40天成交量平均值以上,那将有助于综指上探1100点的阻力水平。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然维持于70%水平以上,这表示综指短期属于强势。由于随机指标已经到达100%,这表示综指短期走势强劲,不过却开始有过热的状况,所以综指若随机指标跌破90%水平将表示综指开始有出现技术调整的风险。

综指自T2上升趋势线反弹以来,配合布林频带上扬讯号,再加上成交量重返40天平均值,所以综指恢复上扬格局。接下来只要布林频带能够继续打开而综指依然获得布林中频带扶持的话,综指后市有望看高一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/06/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 11%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the KLCI continued its bullish biased movement on Thursday, closing 5.99 points higher to 1088.96 points.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI broke above the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement; therefore, the next resistance for the KLCI is at 1100 points; while the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the T2 uptrend line are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total volume dropped 2.2% on Thursday, but volume remains above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still well-participated, thus a positive element to sustain the KLCI uptrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, which suggests that the KLCI short term movement is still bullish biased. With the Stochastic touching 100%, it suggests that the KLCI is about to get over-heated, despite the short term bullishness. Therefore, there is a risk of a technical correction in the near future.

After rebounding from the T2 uptrend line, the KLCI continued its uptrend with the Bollinger Bands Width bullish signal, together with the volume returning to above 40-day VMA level. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish biased movement of the KLCI is likely to continue, until the next contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width.

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