Dow swings to a positive 2009; S&P 500 at 7 month high

Stocks have been lukewarm this week, as investors watch to see whether the multimonth rally will indeed extend into the summer as oil recoiled slightly while gas prices rallied into it's 45th straight days.

The Dow finished up 28.34 points, or 0.32%, at 8799.26, while the S&P 500 was up 1.32 points, or 0.14%, at 946.21. The Nasdaq was off by 3.57, or 0.19%, at 1858.80.The S&P has risen 39.8 percent since hitting a 12-year closing low on March 9, leading some analysts to believe a pullback is in the offing.

For the week, the Dow gained 0.4 percent, its 12th weekly advance in the last 14.

The Dow has logged its biggest 14-week gain since 1975 in that span. The S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.5 percent. its highest close since Nov. 5. The S&P 500 is up 40% from its 12-and-a-half year closing low on March 9. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% on the week, bringing it 47% above its March 9 low. For the year, the blue-chip Dow average is up 0.26 percent.

Fragile financials

Analysts said many banks are still relatively fragile and another financial shock could derail a recovery in its very early stages.

"The big picture is that we have an [economic] recovery but we don't have a solid [financial] system," said Lorenzo Di Mattia, manager of hedge fund Sibilla Global Fund. "The recovery is in place (partly) because no (major) financial institutions have failed since September."

Another unfamiliar visitor to the stock market in June: calm

"Every single close of the S&P 500 in June has been within 10 points of 940," said Dan Peirce, a portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors. "Who turned off that swing?"

Flabbergasted oil & gas prices
Pump prices added less than a penny overnight to a new national average of $2.639 a gallon. Crude prices are surging as well, but not as consistently as gasoline.

Benchmark crude for July delivery fell 64 cents to settle at $72.04 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first time oil prices have fallen in several days.

Oil producing countries are also pulling back, part of the reason that crude hit new eight-month highs this week, peaking Thursday at $73.23 a barrel. Oil prices have more than doubled since March even though demand is down for the year and American storage tanks are bloated with a huge surplus.

On Friday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries dropped its daily demand forecast by 230,000 barrels, estimating that global consumption would shrink to 83.8 million barrels a day.

The Dollar rebound off low

And then there is the money flooding in from Wall Street. Investors fleeing the falling U.S. currency have parked a lot of money in commodity markets. Because crude is priced in dollars, it also gets cheaper for investors overseas.

How long dollar-driven oil prices can remain at these levels is not known, with demand at current levels.