TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 19日 / Composite Index 19/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 19日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数继续在14、21、31天加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average）的区域内巩固，按日回弹5.09点或0.5%。综指当前的支持水平是1053及1035点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是1077点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，虽然综指已经跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），不过布林频带并未明显的打开，所以综指尚未完全进入跌势，只是处于调整巩固的格局，无论如何，布林中频带成为了综指当前的动态阻力线，换句话说，综指必须上扬突破布林中频带，综指才有望回到上扬的格局。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少22%，使到成交量依然低于40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示目前的交投逐渐减少，大势开始变得淡静，接下来成交量若继续减少，那综指将难以转强。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在接近0%水平后反弹，这表示综指短期稍微出现超卖（Over-sold）的现象，所以综指周五出现轻微的技术反弹。无论如何，随机指标依然处于30%水平以下，这表示综指还是处于短期弱势的格局，直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%水平为止。

区域股市随着道指隔夜的反弹出现技术回弹，综指也不例外，这使得综指避开进一步下跌，维持于14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线的巩固区域里。无论如何，除非市场浮现新的利好因素，否则综指将难以扭转逆势上扬，那综指接下来将倾向于调整巩固的格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/06/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI continue to stay in the congestion zone of the 14, 21, 31 EMA, ended the day 5.09 points or 0.5% higher. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expand significantly, and therefore, the KLCI has not yet formed a downtrend.

Resistance for the KLCI is at Bollinger Middle Band, while the supports for the KLCI are found at 1035 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, followed by 1000 psychological support.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 22%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This suggest that the overall market participation is low, as inflow of fresh capital is relatively lower. Therefore, without sufficient buying interests, the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly after almost touching 0%, it was a signal suggesting a slight over-sold condition, and as a result, the KLCI rebounded slightly on Friday. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic staying below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased.

Regional markets rebounded on Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average technically rebounded, and so as the KLCI. However, while the market is still lack of fresh lead, coupled with the absence of important criteria, such as the increased of volume, the KLCI is expected to stay within its consolidation stage for the immediate term.