TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 29/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 29日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 29/06/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI ended flat on Monday, and as a result, the KLCI might be forming a Symmetrical Triangle (study L1 and L2), which suggests a consolidation for the KLCI. If the KLCI should remain resisted by the L2 line, it shall confirm the formation of the Symmetrical Triangle.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 9%, suggesting the KLCI is indeed consolidating. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1095.91 while the support is at Bollinger Middle Band and 1035 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 27.1%, with volume staying below the 40-day VMA level. This implies that investors' confidence is still low as the market participation is relatively insufficient. If volume should remains below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is expected to stay in its consolidation mood.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 70%, but however, due to the lower volume on Monday, the short term bullish signal is yet to be confirmed by the increased of volume. Nevertheless, the Stochastic has to remain above 70% in order to suggest the short term bullish signal, or else, it might just be an over-sensitive signal, as the Stochastic is highly sensitive.

During the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width, the KLCI is also forming a possible Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Other than suggesting a consolidation signal, the Symmetrical Triangle can also indicate the timing of a beginning of a new movement. If the KLCI should break above the Symmetrical Triangle with strong volume, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI. Other wise, if the KLCI should break below the Symmetrical Triangle, it would be a bearish signal for the KLCI. This is why chart patterns is still the most important aspect in Technical Analysis.

综合指数 2009年 6月 29日

如图所示，综合指数周一未能上扬，几乎以平盘挂收，所以有可能形成图中L1及L2 线的对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle），接下来若综指继续在L2线遇阻，那将确认形成对称三角形的盘整格局，直到上扬突破或跌破对称三角形为止。如图中箭头A所示，布林频带进一步的收窄9%，这显示综指依然处于巩固格局，符合形成称三角形的图形讯号。综指目前阻力水平依然是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，支持水平则是布林中频带及1035点胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量再度减少27.1%，这使到成交量依然处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示投资者对市场还未完全恢复信心，所以市场交投还是属于淡静，接下来若成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均值以下，那综指将继续维持目前巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周一上扬突破70%，惟综指周一成交量未能增加，所以此短期转强讯号未能获得成交量确认。无论如何，随机指标是非常敏感的短期指标，接下来随机指标必须维持在70%水平以上，那综指短期才有望完全恢复强势，否则，此讯号只是短期指标过敏所致。

布林频带目前正在收窄中，这表示综指正处于调整巩固的格局中，与此同时综指亦有形成对称三角形的迹象。对称三角形除了能显示综指进入盘整格局以外，也能发出综指盘整结束而开始新走势的讯号，接下来若综指上扬突破对称三角形，综指将有望更上一层楼，反之若综指跌破对称三角形时，综指则有转弱的风险，这也是为何技术图形（Chart Patterns ）在技术分析领域里最为重要。