TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 03/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 03日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 03/06/2009
On Wednesday, the KLCI ended 8.22 points lower, while closing at 1055.40 points at the T2 uptrend line. Therefore, the T2 uptrend line and the Bollinger Middle Band are still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1077 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 25%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the KLCI is likely to move sideways with some bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 15.1%, with volume barely above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still well-participated. However, if the KLCI should continue to consolidate, a lower volume is usually normal.

For the first time since 19th of May, the Stochastic breaks below the 70% level, suggesting a beginning of a technical correction for the KLCI. Unless the Stochastic could return to above 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be on the weaker side.

With the T2 and Bollinger Middle Band overlapping, the dynamic support is an important for the KLCI. Nevertheless, with the Bollinger Bands Width contracting, it suggests that the KLCI is still preparing for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI resume its uptrend. However, if the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk is expected for the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 6月 03日

如图所示，综指下跌8.22点，惟再次精确的在T2上升趋势线获得扶持，所以综指当前的支持水平依然是T2的上升趋势线及布林中频带的动态支持水平，阻力水平则是1077点的胜图自动费氏阻力线。

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数布林频带进一步收窄25%，这表示综指继续调整巩固，通常只要布林频带继续收窄的话，综指将维持在目前的调整巩固格局，直到布林频带再度打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减少15.1%，这使到成交量跌至40天的成交量平均线（VMA），无论如何这表示市场交投还算活跃，由于综指正处于巩固格局，所以成交量接下来继续萎缩是正常的。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）自5月19日以来第一次跌破70%水平，这表示综指开始出现短期技术调整，所以接下来若随机指标继续下滑，那综指短期走势将开始走软，直到随机指标重返70%水平以上为止。

总的来说，综指在T2及布林中频带重叠的支持线上获得扶持，这是综指接下来的关键支持水平，换句话说若综指跌破这两道支持线的话，综指将有进一步转弱的风险。另外由于布林频带处于收窄的状态，这表示综指正在酝酿着一个新的走势，在布林频带重新打开时，若综指依然处于布林中频带以上的话，综指将有望恢复涨势，反之若届时综指处于布林中频带以下的话，那综指将有转为跌势的风险。