TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 09/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 09日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 09/06/2009. As indicated by A, the KLCI ended almost flat with its daily low touching the T2 uptrend line before closing at 1071.79 points. Therefore, the T2 uptrend remains intact with the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement still being the resistance.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, from the previous 7%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands Width is likely to contract, which means that the KLCI is more likely to consolidate.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 31.1%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is now declining. If volume should remain relatively lower during the KLCI consolidation, it is rather normal, for investors choose to stay on the sideways without the fresh leads.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70%, which means that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70%, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

The KLCI failed to break above the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement due to the lack of market participation, despite being supported by the T2 uptrend line. If the KLCI should break below the T2 uptrend line, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn slightly negative as more downside risk is expected. Nevertheless, next support for the KLCI is at 1000 psychological level.

综合指数 2009年 6月 09日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周二稍微下滑，一度跌至1066.99点，惟精确的在T2上升趋势线获得扶持而反弹，以1071.79点挂收，所以T2线继续是综指上扬的动态支持水平，阻力水平则依然是1077点胜图自动费氏阻力线。另一方面，由于1077点是综指筑底回弹38.2%的胜图自动费氏线，有相当大的阻力，所以综指突破此点是有一度的难度。

如图所示，综指布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开幅度再度减少（从之前7%减至6%），所以布林频带还是有收窄的迹象，这表示综指继续有倾向于巩固或技术调整。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二减少31.1%，所以成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示目前市场交投开始有开始萎缩的迹象，所以市场有倾向于调整巩固的可能。无论如何，若综指继续巩固的话，成交量偏低一般上很正常的，这是因为投资者在市场缺乏新的指引之下保持场外观望所致。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然维持于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期走势还是属于强势中，无论如何若随机指标接下来跌破70%水平，那将是综指开始技术调整的第一讯号，综指的短期走势将有开始转弱的风险。

总的来说，综指在T2上升趋势线再度获得扶持，所以综指仍然维持在涨势中，无论如何，市场缺乏成交量，所以综指未能突破1077胜图自动费氏阻力线；接下来若综指失守T2上升趋势线的话，综指后市将技术调整的风险。