June 2009 : The Dow broke a key resistance last week, giving more fuel to the bullish scenario. But the index still hasn't bottomed. It could be a laggard. The ETF, VTI, representing the total US market, has bottomed albeit with unimpressive volume. The Consumer Discretionary sector has also bottomed nicely as have quite a few blue chips: Coke, Microsoft and Exxon. Thus the balance of probabilities is still in favour of the claim that the market has bottomed.
A breakout from a double bottom albeit with diminishing, rather than increasing, volume. For a reliable reversal, volume should be the opposite of what we see: a mirror image of the histogram starting at the surge of volume in October 2008
Resistance at 8,500 is broken. Next resistance at 9,000. The scenario in green is a best case scenario. One could imagine a few less desirable ones
A persuasive bottom for the Nasdaq, compared with the tiny bottom that sufficed to reverse a much larger bear trend. A good bottom with fairly good volume adds evidence to the claim that the market has bottomed.
PE data for the index is controversial. The S&P website only gives quarterly data. This chart is a mixture of data from Robert J. Schiller and Jeremy Siegel. No persuasive trend is shown. However the index does look fairly cheap.
Resistance at 8,500 is broken. Next resistance at 9,000. The scenario in green is a best case scenario. One could imagine a few less desirable ones
A persuasive bottom for the Nasdaq, compared with the tiny bottom that sufficed to reverse a much larger bear trend. A good bottom with fairly good volume adds evidence to the claim that the market has bottomed.PE data for the index is controversial. The S&P website only gives quarterly data. This chart is a mixture of data from Robert J. Schiller and Jeremy Siegel. No persuasive trend is shown. However the index does look fairly cheap. 
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