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Friday, June 26, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 26/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/06/2009
Due to the overnight gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI opened higher on Friday, but soon it started to decline as profit taking activities kicked in. The KLCI closed 1.66 higher to 1075.77 points. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are at the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 6%, suggesting that the KLCI is likely to consolidate, and the consolidation is expected to continue all the way until the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand.

As indicated B, total market volume declined 19.4%, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market overall participation is still low, as the investors' confidence has not totally recovered. Therefore, as long as the volume is still below 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic continued to climb on Friday but failed to break above 70%. Therefore, the Stochastic has not suggested a bullish biased signal for the KLCI. Generally, Stochastic has to break above and remain above 70% to signal a short term bullish signal. On the other hand, if the Stochastic should fall and break below 50%, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI short term is weakening.
Since rebounding from the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement, the KLCI has risen for 4 days. However, the Bollinger Bands Width remains contracting, and therefore, did not suggests any bullish signal. When the Bollinger Bands Width is contracting, it suggests that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

综合指数 2009年 6月 26日
由于美国道指隔夜上扬,综合指数周五开高,随后出现套利导致综指一度下跌至1071点的盘中最低水平,最后以1075.77点挂收,按日涨1.66点。综指阻力水平依然是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏阻力线,支持水平则是布林中频带的动态支持线及1035点的胜图自动费氏支持线。

如图中箭头A所示,布林频带进一步的收窄6%,这表示综指依然没有出现转强的讯号,接下来若布林频带继续收窄,那综指将进入巩固的格局,直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周五减少19.4%,使到成交量继续低于40天的成交量平均线(VMA),这表示目前市场正缺乏新的买盘,所以马股交投有转入淡静的迹象,接下来若成交量依然处于40天的成交量平均值以下,综指将难以转强。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续上扬,惟未能突破70%水平,这表示综指短期还未真正进入涨势。随机指标必须上扬突破并保持在70%水平以上,综指短期才有望转强。相反的,若随机指标开始回软并跌破50%水平,那便是综指短期再度转弱的讯号。

综指自1035点胜图自动费氏线反弹以来,一共上扬4天,惟布林频带依然收窄,所以未能显示综指完全转强。一般上,当布林频带收窄时,这表示综指正酝酿着一个新的走势,等到布林频带重新打开时便是综指新走势的开始,届时再以综指处于布林中频带以上或以下来判断综指进入涨势或跌势。

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