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Thursday, June 25, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 25日 / Composite Index 25/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 25日
由于受到区域股市上扬的牵引,综合指数周四上扬跳空开市,成功突破布林中频带的动态阻力线,按日上扬16.26点或1.5%。综指目前的支持水平依然是1035点胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头A所示,综指突破布林中频带,接下来若综指能够维持在布林中频带以上,当布林频带重新打开时综指就有望转强。无论如何,布林频带周四收窄2%,这表示综指目前还未有明确转强的讯号,直到布林频带明显打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周四增加10.4%,但未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),这表示成交量虽然有增加,但却不足于吸纳综指接下来在1095.91阻力点水平所形成的卖压,所以未能确认综指是否能够转强。在特殊的情况之下,尽管没有足够的成交量,综指也可能暂时走高,惟涨势难以维持。换句话说,成交量维持40天的平均值是综指转强的必备条件之一。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续上扬,成功上扬突破50%水平,这表示综指继续短期的技术反弹,接下来若随机指标能够上扬突破而且维持在70%水平,那综指短期将有望进入涨势。

综指上扬突破布林中频带,所以下一道的重要阻力水平是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线。接下来若综指上扬,但却在1095.91点遇阻而回软,届时综指将有形成双重顶(Double Top)的风险。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 25/06/2009
As the regional markets are moving higher, the KLCI opened with a gap on Thursday, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, closing 16.26 points or 1.5% higher. Support for the KLCI remains at 1035 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the Bollinger Middle Band, and if the KLCI should maintain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI would turn positive, but the KLCI would only be moving higher if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 2% on Thursday, suggesting that the KLCI movement has not turned bullish biased.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 10.4%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that despite the increased of volume, the market participation is still relatively insufficient. Therefore, the inflow of fresh capital is still not substantial to off-set the selling pressure at the 1095.91 level. In short, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important element if the KLCI should resume its uptrend.
As circled at C, the Stochastic broke above 50% on Thursday, continued its technical rebound signal. If the Stochastic should also break above and remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term would turn to bullish biased.
After breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, the next important resistance for the KLCI is now at 1095.91. If the KLCI should failed to break above the 1095.91 level and starts falling, there is a risk for the KLCI in forming a Double Top pattern.

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