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Thursday, June 4, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 04日 / Composite Index 04/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 04日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度精确的在T2 上升趋势线上获得扶持,综指随后反弹,按日上扬8.57点或0.8%。如图所示,T2线及布林中频带重叠,这使到支持力量倍增,所以是综指目前维持上扬格局的重要动态支持线,综指阻力水平则是1077点的胜图自动费氏阻力线。
如图所示,布林频带稍微打开9%,但打开的幅度还不显著,所以未能完全确认综指摆脱巩固格局的讯号,无论如何,若布林频带接下来进一步打开,而综指又能维持在布林中频带以上,那综指有望上探1077点的阻力水平。


如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指上扬,不过马股总成交量在周四却减少27.4%,这使到成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),表示市场整体上开始转为淡静。通常当成交量处于40天的成交量平均值以下的话,综指都有倾向于横摆或疲弱,这意味着若综指要继续转强的话,成交量是必须重返40天的成交量平均值以上。


如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)周四回升并重返70%以上的水平,所以综指短期暂时避开下跌或转弱的走势,无论如何随机指标接下来必须保持在70%水平以上,综指才有望恢复短期上扬的格局。
虽然布林频带稍微打开,但由于打开幅度并不明显,再加上成交量不增反跌,所以暂时未能确认综指调整摆脱巩固而转向上扬的讯号。无论如何,综指仍然获得T2及布林中频带的扶持,所以接下来若布林频带进一步打开,综指还是有望更上一层楼。


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 04/06/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded on the T2 uptrend line on Thursday, up 8.57 points. Therefore, the T2 line as well as the Bollinger Middle Band are still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the resistance is still at 1077 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 9%, but the expansion was in significant to signal the end of the consolidation for the KLCI. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand, there is a good chance for the KLCI to re-test the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 27.4%, and as a result, volume fell below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market has turned quiet. Generally, if volume should stay below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to move sideways with some downside biased.


As circled at C, the Stochastic returned to above 70% level, suggesting that the KLCI short term is still not turning weak. If the Stochastic should remain above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is still positive biased.

Despite the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, the expansion was insignificant; furthermore, the declined of volume failed to confirm the bullish Bollinger Bands signal.

Nevertheless, with the KLCI still supported by the T2 line and the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, the KLCI could climb higher.

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