TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 18/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 18日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/06/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI fall below the 14 and 21-day EMA, while still holding above the 31-day EMA. This suggests that the KLCI is having its technical correction.
With the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is now negative biased. Currently, the Bollinger Bands Width is no longer contracting. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk is expected for the KLCI. Nevertheless, the important support level for the KLCI is at 1000 point while the immediate resistance is at the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 27.5%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. Despite the increased of volume on Thursday, the KLCI ended lower. Therefore, the increased of volume actually implied an increased of selling pressure. If the KLCI should continue to fall with high volume, it would further dampen the market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 30%, entering the short term bearish region. Provided that the Stochastic is still below 30%, the market movement for the short term is expected to be bearish biased, all until the Stochastic should break above 30% level.

On Thursday, the KLCI had its sharpest correction since the uptrend in March, 2009, with 723 counters ended lower, the most losers since 10th of March, 2008. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic getting near 0%, the KLCI is likely to be over-sold, and a technical rebound is likely. In order for the KLCI to resume its uptrend, it must break above the Bollinger Middle Band and volume has to return to above the 40-day VMA level, or else, the bearish biased movement for the KLCI is expected to continue.

综合指数 2009年 6月 18日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周四继续下跌16.49点或1.5%，跌破14及21天综合加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average）的动态支持水平，惟还是成功的守住31天的EMA，这表示综指目前继续处于技术调整的格局。

由于综指继续处于布林中频带以下，加上布林频带有停止收窄的迹象，接下来若布林频带打开，那综指将进一步走软。无论如何，综指接下来的重要支持水平落在1000点水平，阻力水平则是布林中频带。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加27.5%，但依然未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。虽然周四的成交量增加，但是综指却不涨反跌，这表示市场目前的卖压增加，接下来综指若继续下跌而成交量还持续增加，那将加剧综指的跌幅。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标跌破30%水平，这表示综指短期开始进入跌势，接下来若随机指标依然处于30%水平以下，那么综指短期的后市继续看低一线，直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%水平为止。

综指自3月的涨势以来，第一次出现大幅度的调整，下跌股项高达723只，这是2008年3月10日以来下跌股项最多的一日。无论如何，由于随机指标已经很接近0%水平，综指或有技术反弹的迹象，但综指若要恢复涨势的话，就必须重返布林中频带以上，并且成交量维持于40天的成交量平均值以上，否则综指后市依然是疲弱的。