TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 17/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 17日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 17/06/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI is supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, suggesting that the KLCI has not forming a downtrend, while still consolidating. The KLCI fell 3.22 points or 0.3% on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Since the KLCI is already below the Bollinger Middle Band, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk is expected for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 12.6%, and therefore, the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall inflow of fresh buying is relatively lower. Provided that the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is expected to stay weak.

As circled at C, the Stochastic continues to fall, breaking below 50%, which suggests that the current movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. This is a typical signal as the KLCI is consolidating. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to turn weaker.

With the KLCI supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the KLCI is not forming a downtrend yet. However, without sufficient inflow of fresh buying interests to offset the selling pressure, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength. In other words, provided that the external factors should remain unchanged, the KLCI is expected to consolidate further.

综合指数 2009年 6月 17日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数精确的在14、21、31天加权移动平均线（Exponential Moving Average）上获得扶持，周三微跌3.22点或0.3%，这表示综指目前依然处于调整巩固的格局，暂时尚未完全进入跌势。

另一方面，布林频带进一步的收窄3%，这表示综指继续处于调整巩固中，由于综指继续处于布林中频带以下，接下来若布林频带重新打开，那综指将继续有下跌的风险。无论如何，综指阻力水平依然是1100点，1000点的整数点则是综指重要的支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周三再度减少12.6%，所以继续低于40天成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场正缺乏新的买盘，若接下来成交量依然未能突破40天的成交量平均值，那综指是难以转强。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破50%的水平，这表示综指短期依然是偏弱的，这是综指调整巩固的典型讯号。接下来随机指标若跌破30%，那综指短期将进一步走软，形成短期跌势。
综指在14、21、31天综合加权移动平均线获得扶持，所以走势并未进入跌势，无论如何，成交量继续处于40天成交量平均值以下，这表示市场缺乏足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压，因此综指目前没有转强的条件，换句话说，若外围因素继续维持现状，综指接下来将继续处于调整巩固的走势。