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Monday, June 8, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 08日 / Composite Index 08/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 08日
如图中箭头A所示,虽然综合指数一度上探至1080.42点的新高点,惟布林频带打开幅度从9%减至7%,这表示布林频带有开始收窄的迹象。若布林频带开始收窄则表示综指进入调整巩固的格局,这将是综指横摆或技术调整的讯号。 如图所示,综指一度突破1077点的胜图自动费氏线,但随后出现套利活动导致综指下跌2.65点以1072.85点挂收,这表示综指的阻力水平依然是1077点的胜图自动费氏阻力线,支持水平则继续是T2的上升趋势线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量稍微减少2.3%,所以依然能维持于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上,这表示市场目前的交投还是相当活跃。无论如何,成交量活跃的股项某一种程度上都属于二三线的低价股项,所以这并未能真正反映大势的走向,必须继续关注成交量接下来的变化,若成交量继续减少并跌破40天平均值,那综指将有转为调整巩固的可能。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在达到100%水平后开始下调,表示综指短期有出现过热的状况,所以市场出现套利的活动。无论如何,随机指标依然处于70%水平以上,这表示综指短期还是属于强势中,直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止.

总的来说,综指依然未能突破1077胜图自动费氏阻力线,再加上布林频带有开始收窄的迹象,所以综指将有偏向于横摆或有技术调整的迹象。无论如何,这并不代表综指立即结束涨势,因为综指目前依然获得T2上升趋势线及布林中频带的扶持。换句话说,若综指接下来跌破这两道支持线,综指就会有偏弱的风险。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 08/06/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 7%, from the previous 9%, this implies that the Bollinger Bands might be contracting, thus a consolidation signal for the KLCI.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI opened higher on Monday breaking above the 1077, but soon the KLCI started to decline as profit taking activities took place. At the close, the KLCI lost 2.65 points. Therefore, the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the T2 uptrend line and the Bollinger Middle Band are still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.3%, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still actively participated. However, on most of the active counters are second and third liners, and therefore, the volume failed to reflect the true movement of the major trend.
As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%, but still above the 70% level, which suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased, unless the Stochastic should break below 70% level.

In conclusion, the KLCI failed to break above the 1077 Fibonacci Retracement. Coupled with the Bollinger Bands Width is likely to contract, the KLCI is likely to be trading at sideways with some downside biased. However, this does not means that the KLCI is turning into a bearish movement, for the KLCI is still supported by the T2 line and the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should break below these dynamic supports, we shall expect more downside biased movement.

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