TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 23日 / Composite Index 23/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 23日

由于美国道指隔夜下跌200点，这导致综合指数周二开低，综指一度下滑至1028.14点，惟在午盘开始出现反弹，按日微跌

1.49点。如图箭头A所示，综指目前在1035点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持，所以1035点的胜图自动费氏线继续是综指目前的支持水平，阻力水平则是布林中频带。

如图所示，布林频带进一步打开15%，而综指依然处于布林中频带以下，所以综指目前还是有下跌的风险，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，那综指才有望止跌，进入巩固格局

。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二增加10.6%，但却未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场目前的交投还是属于淡静。换句话说，若成交量还是处于40天的平均值以下，那综指依然缺乏转强的条件。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在早盘达到0%水平，随后稍微反弹，这表示综指周二盘中一度出现超卖，引发轻微的技术反弹。无论如何，由于随机指

标依然处于30%水平以下，综指短期后市依然偏弱，直到随机指标成功上扬突破30%水平为止，那综指才有望出现可靠的反弹。

综指目前在1035点胜图自动费氏支持线获得扶持，有望止跌而巩固，但这必须配合布林频带开始收窄，届时才能确认综指止跌进入巩固格局。无论如何，综指技术反弹第一个目标是布林中频带，若综指能够上扬突破布林中频带，那综指有望摆脱下跌的风险，否则，综指后市将继续走软。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/06/2009

The KLCI opened lower on Tuesday, as the over Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 200 points. The KLCI had its intra-day reaching 1028.14, but it managed to rebound in the afternoon, and closing the day with only losing 1.49 points. As indicated by A, the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement is now the support for the KLCI while the resistance is at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 15%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band; therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 10.6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still low, thus the KLCI is not likely to regain its strength without sufficient inflow of fresh capital.

As circled at C, the Stochastic touched 0% in the morning, which is an intra-day over-sold signal. As a result, the KLCI rebounded slightly. Despite a sign of a technical rebound, the Stochastic is still below 30%, which suggests that the short term movement for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

Currently, the KLCI is supported by the 1035 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and the KLCI might have a chance to consolidate at this level. Of course, it would have to be confirmed with the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should have a technical rebound, its first target will be the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI could regain some strength, or else, the downside risk for the KLCI remains high.