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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 15日 / Composite Index 15/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 15日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步收窄13%,这表示综合指数开始调整巩固,综指周一微扬1.02点,接下来布林频带若继续收窄,那综指将维持形成技术调整的格局。
如图所示,综指阻力水平是1100点的水平,而T2上升趋势线及布林中频带则依然是综指当前的动态支持线,换句话说,接下来综指若跌破此动态支持线,综指将有持续转弱的风险,结束自3月来的涨势。若综指形成调整格局,综指的支持水平将是1000点的整数点。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量减少11.8%,这使到成交量回跌至40天的成交量平均线(VMA),成交量若继续下滑那将表示市场的交投开始淡静,在缺乏足够承接力来吸纳套利的卖压之下,综指难以维持涨势,更难于突破1100的阻力水平。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)稍微跌破90%水平,不过却依然维持于70%水平以上,这表示综指短期并未完全转弱,暂时只能算是处于术调整中。无论如何,若随机指标跌破70%水平,那将是综指开始技术调整的讯号,届时综指短期将有进一步走低的风险。

马股周一下跌股项高达607只,这是2009年来下跌股项最多的一日,再加上热门的股项都纷纷出现套利的现象,这都增加综指技术调整的机率,接下来综指若失守T2上升趋势线或布林中频带的话,综指后市将看低一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/06/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 13%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating. Provided that the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the consolidation is expected to continue.
As shown on the chart above, resistance for the KLCI is still at 1100 level, while the Bollinger Middle Band and the T2 uptrend line are the dynamic supports. If the KLCI should break below the T2 uptrend line, it would suggests an end to the uptrend which started since March, 2009.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 11.8%, with volume barely above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is declining. If volume is relatively lower, it means that the inflow of fresh capital is insufficient to over come the selling pressure, thus the KLCI is less likely to maintain its uptrend, not to mention a chance of a break out above 1100.

As circled at C, the Stochastic falls marginally on Monday, but still above 70% level. This means that the KLCI has not turned bearish yet, but a tendency of a technical correction. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should break below 70%, more downside risk for the KLCI is expected.

For the first time in 2009, losers counters on Monday reached 607, also, many active counters are having profit taking; this has increased the risk of a technical correction for the KLCI. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should break below the T2 uptrend line, KLCI movement is expected to stay weak.

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