TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 22/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 22日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 22/06/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 25% on Monday, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. This suggests that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is bearish biased. Provided that the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the bearish biased view is expected to continue. As the KLCI is turning weaker, the Bollinger Middle Band is now the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, while the supports are at 31-EMA and the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 8.5%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively quite, thus the inflow of fresh capital is insufficient to offset the selling pressures. Nevertheless, should volume remains below 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is less likely to pick up its strength.
As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, which is the short term bearish region, suggesting the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased. If the Stochastic should touch 0%, it would be a signal suggesting an over-sold condition, and the KLCI is likely to technically rebound. However, this is not a signal suggesting a reversal, unless the Stochastic should also rebound and break above 30% level successfully.

After breaking below the T2 uptrend line, the KLCI also broke below the Bollinger Middle Band. Now that the Bollinger Bands Width is expanding, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is also weakening. Generally, if the KLCI should attempt to rebound, the first resistance is the Bollinger Middle Band. In other words, provided that the KLCI is still situated below the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook shall remains bearish biased.
综合指数 2009年 6月 22日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带明显打开25%，而综合指数依然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指进一步下滑，按日跌13.53点或1.3%。接下来布林频带若持续打开，综指继续有下跌的风险。

一般上，当综指开始转弱时，布林中频带是综指目前的动态阻力线，支持水平则是31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）及1035点胜图自动费氏支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周一减少8.5%，使到成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，这表示马股目前的交投属于淡静，所以缺乏足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压。换句话说，若成交量仍然未达到40天成交量平均值，那综指就难以转强。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标依然处于30%水平以下的短期弱势区域里，这表示综指短期的走势还是属于疲弱。接下来随机指标若跌至0%，那将是综指短期超卖（Over-sold）的讯号，综指有望出现技术反弹，但这不能视为综指转强的讯号，除非随机指标反弹后能够上扬突破30%水平

。
综指跌破T2上升趋势线后也跌破布林中频带，进入调整格局，再加上布林频带重新打开，而综指依然处于布林中频带以下，所以综指继续有下跌的风险。一般上，综指若要转强，第一个条件就是先要突破布林中频带，换句话说，若综指继续处于布林中频带以下，综指将继续维持盘整格局。