As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 25% on Monday, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. This suggests that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is bearish biased. Provided that the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the bearish biased view is expected to continue. As the KLCI is turning weaker, the Bollinger Middle Band is now the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, while the supports are at 31-EMA and the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 8.5%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively quite, thus the inflow of fresh capital is insufficient to offset the selling pressures. Nevertheless, should volume remains below 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is less likely to pick up its strength.
As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, which is the short term bearish region, suggesting the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased. If the Stochastic should touch 0%, it would be a signal suggesting an over-sold condition, and the KLCI is likely to technically rebound. However, this is not a signal suggesting a reversal, unless the Stochastic should also rebound and break above 30% level successfully.
After breaking below the T2 uptrend line, the KLCI also broke below the Bollinger Middle Band. Now that the Bollinger Bands Width is expanding, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is also weakening. Generally, if the KLCI should attempt to rebound, the first resistance is the Bollinger Middle Band. In other words, provided that the KLCI is still situated below the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook shall remains bearish biased.
综合指数 2009年 6月 22日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带明显打开25%，而综合指数依然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指进一步下滑，按日跌13.53点或1.3%。接下来布林频带若持续打开，综指继续有下跌的风险。