TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 02/06/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 6月 02日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/06/2009
Due to the overnight strong gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI opened higher on Tuesday, while touching an intra-day high of 1072.07 points. However, the KLCI could not sustain its gain, and soon most of the early gains were given back due to profit taking as the KLCI is near the 1077 resistance, closing the day at 1063.62 points, up only 1.82 points.

Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1077 Fibonacci Retracement while the T2 line and the Bollinger Middle Band are still the dynamic support for the KLCI. Meanwhile, as indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 18%, suggesting the KLCI is still in a consolidation stage.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 31.6%, with volume returning to above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is now relatively sufficient and if volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, it would help the KLCI regain strength. Nevertheless, a healthy increased of volume should be associated with the rise in price, and therefore, if the KLCI should failed to break above the 1077 resistance in spite of strong volume, it would actually means that the resistance is strong, as selling pressure is higher than buying interest. This is an important factor which investors should never overlook.

As circled at C, the Stochastic started falling but still above 70% level, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

Despite the strong gain of the Dow, most Asian markets opened higher but closed lower, so did the KLCI. Nevertheless, with the Bollinger Bands Width still contracting, there is not signal suggesting that the KLCI is regaining its bullishness yet.

综合指数 2009年 6月 02日

在隔夜美国道琼指数上扬超过200点的带动下，综合指数周二开高，一度上扬至1072.07点的近年来的新高水平，无论如何，由于综指接近1077点的阻力水平，所以市场出现套利活动，导致综指回软，按日只微扬1.82点。综指目前的阻力水平依然是1077点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，支持水平则是T2的上升趋势线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带继续收窄18%，这表示虽然综指上扬，不过综指技术上还是处于巩固格局中，接下来若布林频带继续收窄的话，综指继续会有调整巩固迹象。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周二增加31.6%，使到成交量重返40天的成交量平均线（VMA）水平以上，这表示市场交投有望恢复活跃，若成交量能够维持在40天的成交量平均值以上的话，那将有助于综指摆脱巩固格局恢复上扬趋势。不过，若成交量持续增加但综指却还是未能突破1077点，那表示阻力相当强，那综指将开始有转入空头市场的可能，换句话说卖压开始增加，投资者可要留意这一点。

如图总C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）虽然稍微下滑，但依然维持在70%水平以上，这表示综指短期还是处于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

尽管美国道琼指数带动，亚太区域股市却开高收低，这显示投资者正在逢高套利，市场继续有调整的迹象。布林频带目前处于收窄的状态，所以综指还是处于巩固中，虽然综指以及处于布林中频带以上了，不过还是必须等到布林频带重新打开，综指才算是正真的结束巩固，开始新的走势。