Composite Index 19/02/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 02月 19日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 4.36 points higher on Thursday, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. Support for the KLCI remains at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still fluctuating between the L1 and L2 Symmetrical Triangle, while the Bollinger Bands Width also contracted, this suggests that the KLCI is still consolidating.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 10.3% on Thursday, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still low, thus the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.
As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded and returned to above 70% level. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the KLCI might resume its short term bullish movement. Nevertheless, the short term bullish movement of the KLCI has to be confirmed with volume above the 40-day VMA level, or else, the Stochastic signal may just be over sensitive for now.
Technically, when the Bollinger Bands Width is contracting, the KLCI is expected to consolidate until a re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width . The new movement of the KLCI shall only be revealed by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. Also, a breakout above or below the symmetrical triangle would be a reliable signal for the new KLCI movement.

综合指数 2009年 02月 19日

如图中箭头A指示，综合指数回弹并且上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力水平，综指按日上扬4.36点或0.5%。综指目前的支持水平依然是885点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则依然落在905点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示，综指继续徘徊在对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle）的范围之内，加上布林频带继续的收窄9%，所以综指将继续的维持在巩固的格局里，直到布林频带重新打开或综指开始突破三角形为止。
如图中箭头B指示，马股的成交量增加了10.3%，惟还是未能突破40天的成交量平均值，这表示了市场的交投不活跃，投资者在综指巩固时保持观望的态度，这使到综指继续倾向横摆巩固。
如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹并稍微突破70%的水平，所以随机指标接下来若能够继续的保持在70%水平的话，那么综指短期将有望恢复短期上扬的局势。无论如何，综指若要转强的话就必须要配合成交量高于40天平均值来确认，否则随机指标的讯号只是短期指标在综指横摆时过敏罢了。
总的来说，布林频带目前正处于收窄的状态，这显示综指正酝酿着一个新趋势，而这新趋势将在布林频带再度打开时确认其方向。另一方面，综指突破三角形也是一个有效且准确高的讯号，在技术分析来说，综指的新趋势将是综指突破三角形的方向。