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Thursday, February 12, 2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 12日 / Composite Index 12/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 12日
如图中箭头
A所示,由于亚太区域股市继续在经济衰退的阴影下滑落,综合指数在稍微上探900点后回软,按日微跌0.3%。综指当前的支持水平仍然是885点至887点的水平,阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度进一步减低,所以综指目前依然是处于一个调整巩固的格局里,布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)则成为了综指当期的动态支持线,这也将是综指调整的第一个目标。

如图中箭头A所示,马股总成交量稍微上升8.4%,不过还是不至于达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这是市场继续的处于淡静的讯号。通常若成交量处于40天平均值以下的话,那综指将倾向于横摆巩固或下跌的。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)稍微跌破了70%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势继续有走软的迹象。换句话说,随机指标必须在短期内回弹并重新返回70%以上的水平,那综指才能避开形成一个短期下跌的趋势。

总的来说,综指目前仍然在一个短期调整的格局中,再加上国际市场动荡的局势,所以综指目前的跌幅在与其他股市比较之下显得小。一般上,在布林频带开始收窄或综指开始调整时,综指最好的调整莫过于横摆了。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 12/02/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 900 points on Thursday, but failed to break above the 900 mark, closing 0.3% lower. Support for the KLCI remain at 885 and 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and the resistance is 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 3%. With its expansion rate slowing down, it seems like the KLCI is going to consolidate again, while the Bollinger Middle Band is the dynamic support for the KLCI, and also usually the first target of the correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8.4%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still lightly participated. If volume should remain below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is likely to consolidate with some downside biased.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level by margin. If the Stochastic should continue to fall, it would end the short term bullish signal, which is also a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In short, the KLCI is still at its consolidation stage. With negative sentiment across the globe, the market direction for the KLCI remains unclear. Generally, the best consolidation for the KLCI, during the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width, would be a low volatile sideways movement.

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