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Tuesday, February 3, 2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 03日 / Composite Index 03/02/2009


综合指数 2009年 02月 03日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数一度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线,惟综指再度的在此阻力水平遇到阻力而回软,综指全日微跌4.78点或0.5%。由于综指多次的未能突破887点的胜图自动费氏线,所以887点将继续的成为综指接下来重要的一道阻力水平,支持水平则仍然分别落在869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示,综指目前正处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)中间,这表示综指目前正处于一个走势不确定或不明朗的格局,再加上布林频带(Bollinger Band)收到非常窄小(-33%),这也意味着综指目前正在酝酿着一个新的趋势。
如图中箭头B所示,成交量微增2%,所以成交量还是处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以下,这表示整体的市场仍然是属于一个淡静的格局中,投资者还是以静观其变的居多。
如图中C圈所示,胜图强弱指标(WinChart RSI)在30%的水平回弹,所以胜图强弱指标还未跌破30%,这表示综指的中期走势还未确定是否已经进入跌势。换句话说,若胜图强弱指标接下来跌破30%的话,那综指的中期走势将开始步入跌势中。
总的来说,综指的短期走势在稍微转强后再度出现横摆巩固的状态,通常这意味着综指正在酝酿着一个新的趋势,不过这新趋势只在布林频带再度打开时才能获得确认。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 03/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement again on Tuesday, but remained resisted by the Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Supports for the KLCI are still at 869 and 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart, the KLCI is now situated at the Bollinger Middle Band while the Bollinger Bands Width contracts. This shows that the direction of the KLCI is still unclear while the consolidating; therefore, we shall have to wait until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2%, and still below the 40-day VMA level. This is still suggesting that the overall market participation is low as the market direction is still unclear.
As circled at C, the WinChart RSI rebounded after hitting the 30% level, suggesting that the mid term market strength for the KLCI is not yet bearish. If the WinChart RSI should break below 30% level, it would be a mid term bearish signal for the KLCI.
In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate with some bearish biased, and the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width is also implying a preparation of a new move and the direction of the new movement shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

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