综合指数 2009年 02月 24日 / Composite Index 24/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 24日

如图中箭头A所示，由于885点的胜图自动费氏线与L1的趋势线重叠，使到支持力量倍增，所以综合指数周二再度精确的在885点的胜图自动费氏线上获得扶持而回弹。由于综指在L1线上反弹，所以综指继续的在对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle）里巩固，酝酿着一个新的趋势。综指当前的阻力水平是905点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则依然是885点。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Ban）稍微打开了2%，但是这打开的幅度相对的小，还不算是明显打开，这表示综指还是属于横摆巩固。布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）接下来也将继续的成为综指的动态阻力线。

如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量稍微增加6.3%，所以依然未能达到40天的成交量平均值（Volume Moving Average）。换句话说，马股交投目前还是属于淡静，综指有倾向于调整巩固的格局。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹并且突破了30%的水平，表示综指有望开始技术反弹（Technical Rebound）。若随机指标接下来能进一步上扬突破50%水平的话，那综指有望出现短期转强的趋势。

尽管美国道琼指数创下12年新低，综指还是能够在885点的水平获得扶持，若成交量能够明显增加的话，那885点将有望成为综指有力的支持水平。无论如何，综指已经非常接近三角形的尾端，所以综指近期将有摆脱目前巩固的趋势出现。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 24/02/2009
Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closing at its 12 year low, the KLCI rebounded 6.24 points after supported by the 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and the L1 line. Therefore, the KLCI continued its consolidation within the Symmetrical Triangle, and the resistance for the KLCI is still at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. (Study A)
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 2%, and therefore, the signal is insignificant. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand significantly, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6.3%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still low, thus the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength, and it is expected t continue its consolidation.
As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded and broke above 30% level, as the KLCI closed higher at its daily high. Therefore, the Stochastic is now suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound. If the Stochastic should also break above 50% level, it would be a signal suggesting a continuation of the technical rebound.
In short, since the KLCI is getting closer to the tip of the Symmetrical Triangle, we shall only wait until the KLCI break out from the Symmetrical Triangle to show its new direction.

HAPPY TRADING