综合指数 2009年 02月 17日 / Composite Index 17/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 17日

由于受到亚洲区域股市下跌的影响，大马综合指数也不可避免的下挫8.66点，惟如图中箭头A指示，综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）上反弹，表示了布林中频带目前依然是综指的动态支持水平。如图所示，布林频带开始收窄2%，这意味着综合正进入巩固的格局。

另一方面，综指形成了一个对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle），图中L1线为动态支持水平，L2线则是动态阻力水平。对称三角形表示综指正处于巩固的状态，所以综指接下来的走势将继续的维持在一个巩固的状态，直到综指成功突破L2或跌破L1线为止。无论如何，885点的胜图自动费氏线依然是综指的支持水平，905的胜图自动费氏线则继续是综指的阻力水平。

如图中箭头B指示，大马股票交易所的成交量比昨天减少了11.2%，所以成交量继续的处于40天的平均值以下，这表示了目前市场的交投还是属于淡静的。一般来说，当综指正处于巩固格局时，成交量减退也是很正常的。无论如何，如果综指要突破L2线后形成上扬趋势的话，那就必须要配合成交量达到40天的平均值以上来确认突破的讯号，届时综指才有望恢复转强的局势。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）在试探着70%的支持水平，若随机指标跌破70%水平的话，那么将表示综指出现短期技术调整，同时也暗示着综指后市有转弱的风险。
总的来说，综指目前所形成的对称三角形也配合了布林频带收窄的讯号，这是技术分析中一个重要的讯号。综指目前的将继续的维持巩固的状态，直到布林频带重新打开或综指突破对称三角形为止。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 17/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower on Tuesday, with its daily low precisely supported by the Bollinger Middle Band before closing at 898.53 points. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width started to contract 2%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating.

Meanwhile, the KLCI is forming a symmetrical triangle with L1 being the dynamic support and L2 being the dynamic resistance.

The symmetrical triangle also suggests that the KLCI is at its consolidation as the market direction is still unclear until a valid break out above the L2 or below the L1. Nevertheless, other supports for the KLCI remain at 885 Fibonacci Retracement while the 905 Fibonacci Retracement is still a resistance for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume decreased 11.2% on Tuesday, with volume staying below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation still low as investors are still being cautious while staying on the sideline. Nevertheless, it is generally normal to have lower volume during a consolidation, but if the KLCI should break above from the Symmetrical Triangle, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must to confirm a valid break out.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is testing the 70% level, while still holding up at the short term bullish region. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting beginning of a technical correction, thus the KLCI short term movement is expected turn weak.

In short, the formation of the Symmetrical Triangle is in line with the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width. Until a valid break out of the Symmetrical triangle or a re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width , the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue.

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