Composite Index 20/02/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 02月 20日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/02/2009
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at its 6 years old, coupled with the Asian markets closing lower, the KLCI broke below the Bollinger Middle Band, closing 9.88 points or 1.1% lower. Support for the KLCI remains at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, and the KLCI is still staying within the Symmetrical Triangle, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still in place.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 10.6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still relatively lower, and it is still considered normal if the KLCI should continue to consolidate. However, if the KLCI should break below the Symmetrical Triangle with a significant increased of volume, it would be a signal suggesting an increased of selling pressure, thus would further dampen the market sentiment.
As circled at C, the Stochastic failed to sustain above the 70% level, breaking both 50% and 30% level on Friday. This shows that the short term movement of the KLCI is now turning weak. If the Stochastic should remain below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is expected to be bearish biased.
In short, other than suggesting a consolidation signal, the Symmetrical Triangle also can provide a timing signal, that is when the KLCI either break above or below the Symmetrical Triangle. If the KLCI should break below the Symmetrical Triangle, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the consolidation, and a beginning of a downside movement.

综合指数 2009年 02月 20日

随着美国道琼指数创下了6年来的新低，亚太区域股市纷纷走低，综指未能独善其身，跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），按日下跌9.88点或1.1%。无论如何，综指目前的支持水平依然是885点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平依然是905点的胜图自动费氏线（参考图中箭头A）。
如图所示，布林频带进一步收窄19%，同时综指还是继续的处于对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle）内，所以综指目前还是处于巩固的格局中，这也意味这综指正在酝酿这一个新的趋势。
如图中箭头B指示，马股的成交量增加了10.6%，但是依然保持在40天的成交量平均值以下，表示了市场的交投还是属于淡静中。若综指维持目前走势的话，那成交量继续保持低迷是正常的，但是若综指跌破对称三角形时成交量明显增加的话，那将会加剧综指的跌势。
如图中C圈指示，随机指标在周五跌破了30%的水平，这表示综指出现了短期的下跌讯号，不过这讯号在布林频带收窄时只是一个暗示讯号，必须要等待布林频带开始打开来确认。
总的来说，对称三角除了表示综指正处于巩固格局以外，也提供了一个“时机”的讯号，那就是当综指上扬突破或向下跌破三角形时，综指酝酿的趋势将开始。以技术分析来看，若综指接下来跌破对称三角形的话，将表示综指综指有出现跌势的风险了。