综合指数 2009年 02月 25日 / Composite Index 25/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 25日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数在美国隔夜道琼指数及区域股市回弹的带领下，一度上探布林中频带的动态阻力水平（Dynamic Resistance），惟综指精确的在布林中频带遇阻而回软，按日微扬2.44点或0.3%。如图所示，综指目前依然在对称三角形（Symmetrical Tri）里巩固，885点的胜图自动费氏线继续是综指的支持水平，阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带周三收窄4%，这表示综指还是属于一个调整巩固巩固的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。
如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量减少了3.3%，所以成交量依然处于40天的成交量平均值（Volume Moving Average）以下。整体市场的交投依然不足，这是综指处于调整巩固的典型状态。
如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）虽然在周三继续的上升，不过还未突破50%的水平，这表示了综指短期虽然出现了技术反弹，但是还不至于确认出现短期上扬的讯号。一般来说，随机指标必须上扬突破70%的水平，那综指短期才有望出现上扬的趋势。
总的来说，由于缺乏有利的因素，所以投资者还是保持观望的态度，不愿太早入市，这使到综指继续的巩固。无论如何由于综指接近三角形的尾端，所以综指酝酿的新趋势有望短期内出现。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 25/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band and closed at the Bollinger Middle Band, up 2.44 points. Therefore, the KLCI continues its consolidation within the Symmetrical Triangle. Support for the KLCI is still at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 4%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Generally, the consolidation is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 3.3% on Wednesday, and therefore, it is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market participation is still insufficient. Without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less like to pick up any strength.
As circled at C, the Stochastic continue to rise on Wednesday, but failed to break above 50% level. This shows that the KLCI short term movement is still not turning bullish. Generally, the Stochastic has to break above 70% level, in order to signal a short term bullish signal.
Regional markets rebounded on Wednesday as lead by the rebound of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, the market is still lack of fresh lead, thus the KLCI is likely to continue its consolidation as investors are still staying on the sidelines.

HAPPY TRADING