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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 11日 / Composite Index 11/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 11日
如图中箭头A所示,虽然国际指数受到美国道琼斯指数暴跌4.62%的拖累而下滑,不过综合指数只下滑了6.45点或0.7%。无论如何,这也是因为投资者在局势未明朗之前采取观望态度所致,这可以从图中成交量锐减27.1%看得出。由于成交量再次的跌破了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)(参考箭头B),所以整体市场也有再度出现调整巩固的迹象,除非成交量在短期内再度增长超过40天平均值。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)的打开幅度从48%剧减至4%,这显示综指的短期涨势出现急转弯的情形。无论如何,这目前只能算是一个技术调整,而通常这调整的第一个目标将是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)自达到100%后,继续的下滑,惟随机指标还是处于70%以上,这表示虽然综指的短期走势开始有转弱的迹象,不过只要随机指标一日还未跌破70%的话,那综指的短期涨势还未能确认结束。
总的来说,综指在上扬了三日后开始出现了技术调整,布林中频带将是综指的动态支持线,换句话说,若综指跌破了布林中频带的话,那综指才算是出现下跌的趋势。综指当期的支持水平落在885点至887点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/02/2009
As indicated by A, despite the sharp fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI only lost 6.45 points or 0.7% on Wednesday. The retreat of the KLCI is considered healthy as no sign of panic selling is seen. We can see from the decline of volume (-27.1%) suggesting that the selling was rather mild. Since volume is now back to below the 40-day VMA level, the market participation is now on the lower side, which is a sign of a consolidation. Therefore, the increased of volume is a must if the KLCI should resume its rally. (Study B)
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 4% on Wednesday, compared to previous 48%. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI, and the first target of the consolidation would be the Bollinger Middle Band.
As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%, but still above the 70% level, which means that the short term bullish signal is still intact. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.
To sum up, it is rather normal for the KLCI to have its correction after rallied for 3 days, and if the KLCI should find its support above the Bollinger Middle Band after this correction, there is a chance for the rally to resume. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would end the short term bullish biased movement. Nevertheless, other supports for the KLCI are still at 885 and 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the immediate resistance is at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.


HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL


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