综合指数 2009年 02月 18日 / Composite Index 18/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 18日

由于隔夜美国道琼指数暴跌将近300点，所以亚太区域股市也纷纷出现开低的格局，这使到综合指数跌破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持水平（参考图中箭头A）。无论如何，综指周三只下跌3.3点或0.4%，所以只要综指能短期内回升至布林中频带以上的话，那么综指还是有望避开下跌的局势。

如图所示，布林频带还是继续的收窄（-3%），再加上综指依然处于L1及L2线所构成的对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle）里，这表示综指目前继续的处于巩固格局中。换句话说，综指目前继续的处于调整巩固中，直到布林频带再度打开为止。无论如何，综指的支持水平依然落在885点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B指示，大马股市交易所的成交量萎缩14.4%，所以成交量继续的处于40天的成交量平均值以下，这表示目前整体市场的交投淡静，投资者依然在综指后市未明朗化之前采取观望的态度，这表示综指倾向于巩固的状态，暂时未能转强。
如图中C圈指示，随机指标跌破了70%的水平，所以随机指标必须短期内回弹并突破70%的水平，否则综指将继续技术调整（Technical Correction)，换句话说，综指短期有开始转弱的风险。

总的来说若布林频带继续收窄的话，综指还是处于巩固的格局中。从技术分析的角度来看，最好的调整是横摆；综指将继续的维持现状，直到布林频带重新打开，届时综指的新趋势将取决于综指处于布林中频带的相应位置。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 3.30 points lower on Wednesday, closing below the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width continue to contract 3%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating.

As shown on the chart above, the L2 and L1 Symmetrical Triangle remains in place, while the support for the KLCI is still at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement; resistance for the KLCI is still at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 14.4%, with the volume below the 40-day VMA level. Again, if volume should stay below the 40-day VMA level, it suggests that the overall market participation is still insufficient, as the KLCI direction is still unclear. Without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is likely to consolidate further with some downside biased.

As circled at C, the Stochastic break below 70% level, giving a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. Therefore, the KLCI has ended its short term bullish signal. Unless the Stochastic could return to above the 70% level in the near future, the short term market movement of the KLCI is expected to turn weak.

The KLCI is dragged by the overnight Dow Jones Industrial Average losing nearly 300 points, coupled with the losses in most Asian markets. However, with the Symmetrical triangle still in place, the KLCI is set to consolidate further.
HAPPY INVESTING