综合指数 2009年 02月 23日 / Composite Index 23/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 23日

如图中箭头A指示，综合指数精确的在L1上获得支持，所以综指继续的在三角形内获得扶持，无论如何综指按日下跌1.88点或0.2%。另一方面，由于885点的胜图自动费氏线也接近L1的趋势线，所以支持力量也倍增，综指接下来的阻力水平则依然是905点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄20%，这表示综指正在酝酿一个新的趋势，所以综指处于巩固格局中，直到布林频带重新打开或综指突破对称三角形为止。 如图中箭头B指示，马股的成交量减少了14.1%，所以目前继续的处于40天成交量平均值（Volume Moving Average）以下，这表示了市场的交投还是属于淡静的。无论如何，当综指横摆巩固时成交量偏低是很正常的，这是因为大部分投资继续维持离场观望的态度所致。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续的处于30%水平以下，这也是短期的熊市区域里。随机指标若不能短期内上扬突破30%水平的话，那综指短期的走势将继续有下跌的风险。

总的来说，由于美国道琼指数目前正处于跌势中，再加上本地也缺乏新的有利因素，综指继续横摆巩固。无论如何，由于综指目前接近三角形尾端，所以综指有望在近期内突破三角形，届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指新的趋势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/02/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI failed to sustain its early gain, closing precisely above the 805 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and the L1 of the Symmetrical Triangle dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting 20%; therefore, the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands or the KLCI breaking out of the Symmetrical Triangle.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 14.1%, and therefore, continue to stay below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still low, as investors are still staying on the sidelines. Nevertheless, a lower volume during a consolidation is considered normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should continue staying below this level, the short term market movement for the KLCI is likely to be bearish biased.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average moving in downtrend, together with no fresh lead in the local market, the KLCI is expected to consolidate further. However, with the KLCI near to the tip of the Symmetrical Triangle, the KLCI is expected to break out of the Triangle in near future. If the KLCI should break out from the Symmetrical Triangle, it is a good idea to combine the Bollinger Bands signals to monitor the new movement of the KLCI.
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