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Sunday, February 15, 2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 13日 / Composite Index 13/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 13日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数在巩固了两日后再度上扬,并且突破了 900点的心理关口以及905点的胜图自动费氏线阻力水平,所以综指接下来的支持水平上调至905点,阻力水平则是937点的胜图自动费氏线。 如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)从周四的3%增加至11%,所以综指再度上扬,通常综指将有望一直维持在上扬的趋势内,直到综指跌破布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量大扬57.7%,使到成交量冲破了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示投资者在综指朝正面移动时再度入场,这显示投资者依然对综指短期走势抱着乐观的态度。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)重新返回70%以上的水平,这表示综指避开了进一步转弱的风险。以技术分析来看,通常只要随机指标能继续的为止在70%以上的话,那综指的短期走势将有望继续维持在上扬的格局里。

总的来说,虽然国际市场继续的处于不稳定的状态,综指在调整了两日后再度上扬,由于受到足够成交量的确认,所以综指短期的后市有望看高一线,直到随机指标跌破70% 止。Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 13/02/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 900 level successfully after consolidated for two days. The KLCI also break above the 905 resistance, and therefore, the next resistance for the KLCI is at 937 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the 905 serves as the immediate support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 11%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band; therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, more upside room for the KLCI is expected. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting another consolidation for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 57.7% on Friday, breaking above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is now actively participated, and if volume should maintain above the 40-day VMA level, there is a better chance for the KLCI to sustain its bullish biased movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic returned to above 70% level, while the short term bullish signal remains intact. As long as the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

To sum up, despite the weaker regional markets, the KLCI rallied with relatively strong volume. Therefore as long as the market should maintain active, the rally of the KLCI is likely to continue, until the Stochastic breaks below 70% level.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL


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