Composite Index 26/02/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 02月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band again on Thursday, but remained resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. This shows that other than the 905 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, the Bollinger Middle Band is also another resistance for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is still at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 2%, which is insignificant, and therefore, the KLCI is likely to remain in its consolidation. Furthermore, the KLCI is still trading within the symmetrical triangle, and therefore, the consolidation remains intact.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market activities is still low as investors are still being cautious while waiting on the sidelines. Nevertheless, a lower volume during a consolidation stage is normal.
As circled at C, the Stochastic failed to break above 50% level, which suggests that the KLCI short term movement still has not regain its strength. If the Stochastic should break below 30% level again, it would be another short term bearish signal for the KLCI.
Since the KLCI is moving closer to the tip of the Symmetrical Triangle, the fluctuation is expected to be low. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should break above the L2 line, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI might be gaining strength. If the KLCI should break below the L1 line, it would be a signal suggesting a weakening trend for the KLCI.
综合指数 2009年 02月 26日

图中箭头A所示，综合指数一度上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力水平，惟综指再次精确的在布林中频带遇到阻力然后回软，使到综指按日微跌3.09点或0.3%。这表示除了905点胜图自动费时此案以外，布林中频带依然是综指的动态阻力水平，综指的支持水平依然是885点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带在周四打开了2%，但是这打开的幅度属于微小，所以综指还是属于巩固中，不至于确定出现跌势。无论如何，由于综指还没有突破对称三角形（Symmetrical Triangle），所以严格来说综指依然是属于横摆巩固的格局。
如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量减稍微增加1.6%，但是却还是未能突破40天的成交量平均值（Volume Moving Average）。这表示了投资者还是保持谨慎的态度，继续在场外观望，所以目前市场的交投还是属于淡静中，这是综指横摆时的典型状态。
如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）在触到50%水平后开始回软，表示了综指短期还未出现转强的确认讯号。无论如何，若随机指标接下来再次跌破30%水平的话，那综指短期的走势将继续有下跌的风险。
由于综指正一步一步的接近对称三角形的尾端，这意味综指接近突破在三角形内的巩固格局，若综指上扬突破L2线的话，综指将有望形成转强的趋势，反之若综指跌破L1的话，综指将有出现跌势的讯号。