综合指数 2009年 02月 16日 / Composite Index 16/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 16日

综合指数在上扬后再度调整，所幸的是综指精确的在905点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持（参考图中箭头A），这是综指当前的技术支持水平，综指再下一道的支持水平则落在885-887点这两道胜图自动费氏线，综指目前的阻力水平则是处于937点的胜图自动费氏线。。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger）打开幅度出现了再度减低的格局，这显示综指目前还是有调整巩固的趋势。无论如何，只要综指继续的处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）这道动态支持水平以上的话，那综指还是有望继续的转强。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量在综指回软时减少了25.4%，这显示投资者再度的受到外围因素影响而却步，无论如何，成交量还是成功的达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场还是处于一个活跃的水平里。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度在达到100%后回软，这显示综指的短期走势在出现过热（随机指标达100%）后再度在短期超卖下走低。无论如何，只要随机指标继续的维持在70%以上的话，那综指的短期走势还是未算是确定出现一个下跌的趋势。

总的来说综指目前在短期涨势中出现了技术调整，综指还是呈转强状态，不过接下来成交量若跌破40天平均值的话，这就意味着投资者开始回避股市，这是投资者对综指后市悲观或不明确的反应，届时综指的后市将会看低一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 16/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI remains supported by the 905 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement despite a slight pullback on Monday. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is still at 905 while the next support is at 885-887 Fibonacci Retracement. Resistance for the KLCI is at 937 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is expanding at a slower rate, implying that the KLCI might be consolidating soon. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 25.4%, as investors are still being cautious. Nevertheless, volume on Monday is still above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still relatively actively participated.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated after hitting 100%, suggested that the KLCI is having a healthy pull back as the KLCI was over-heated. Nevertheless, with the Stochastic still above the 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased.

The slight pull back on Monday is considered normal. As long as the volume should remain above 40-day VMA level, the rally of the KLCI is likely to continue. However, if volume should failed to sustain at above the 40-day VMA level, it would be a sign of lack of confident in the market and the KLCI would have difficulties in sustaining its current movement.

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