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Thursday, February 5, 2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 04日 / Composite Index 04/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 04日
如图中箭头A所示,虽然亚太区域股市回弹,不过由于布林频带(Bollinger Band)仍然收窄15%,所以综合指数仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局,综指闭市微跌2.87点。如图所示,综指依然是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,所以若综指接下来要出现转强趋势的话,那综指必须在布林频带再度打开前返回布林中频带以上。
综指目前的主要阻力是布林中频带这道动态阻力线以及887点的胜图自动费氏线,而支持水平则继续的处于869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示,成交量比周二稍微减少0.8%,所以成交量仍然还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这是市场依然淡静的迹象,这也是综指在横摆巩固时的典型状态。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)下滑至30%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势有再度进入下跌的迹象,虽然这只是一个警告的讯号,不过若随机指标继续下滑的话,那在随机指标跌破30%后,综指的短期走势将有转弱的风险。
总的来说,综指目前正在酝酿着一个新的趋势,惟这新趋势的方向只在布林频带再度打开时才能被确定。一般上若届时综指是处于布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有望再度出现上扬的趋势
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 04/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended slightly lower despite most Asian markets ended higher. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 15%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating, and if the KLCI should return to its positive territory, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band is imperative.
Other than the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance line, the 887 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI; while the other supports are still at 869 and 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 0.8%, and as a result, the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This, once again, showing that the overall market participation is indeed insufficient, thus the KLCI is likely to consolidate.
As circled at C, the Stochastic is touching the 30% level, and if the Stochastic should break below 30% level, it would be entering the short term bearish region; and therefore, if the Stochastic should remain below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is expected to be bearish biased.
Despite some short term bearish biased view, the KLCI is still at its consolidation, while preparing for a new movement; and the direction of the new movement will only be determined once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

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