综合指数 2009年 02月 05日 / Composite Index 05/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 05日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数稍微回弹0.4%，惟综指依然未摆脱布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）这道动态阻力线，所以布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的主要阻力线。虽然综指始终还未算突破布林中频带，不过由于布林频带（Bollinger Band）目前还是处于收窄的情形，所以综指还是属于一个横摆巩固的格局中。
如图所示，综指当前的阻力除了布林中频带之外，就是887点的胜图自动费氏线，短期的支持线则继续落在869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示，成交量增加5.7%，不过成交量依然还未达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示整体市场还是保持着一个淡静的格局中，投资者仍然采取离场观望的态度，等待本地及国际市场进一步的明朗化。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）从30%的水平回弹，这意味着综指的短期走势并未确定进入下跌的格局。无论如何，这种大波动或反复的情形在布林频带收窄时，常常会出现在短期指标（如随机指标）。
总的来说，随机指标显示综指还未出现短期下跌的讯号，不过综指仍然是处于一个横摆巩固的格局中，通常这是要等到布林频带再度打开时，综指的下一个趋势才将获得确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 05/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded 0.4% on Thursday, but still below the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. Although the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating.
As shown on the chart above, 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the supports are still seen at 869 and 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 5.7%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still quiet, as investor are still staying on the sidelines amid unclear market direction.
As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded from the 30% level, continue it technical rebound signal. The Stochastic may react sensitively for this quiet normal as the Bollinger Bands Width is contracting.
In short, the KLCI has not entered the short term bearish region while still consolidating; and the new direction of the KLCI can only be clearer once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.