TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> FBM ACE 08/12/2009 / 富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 12月 08日

FBM ACE 08/12/2009
On Tuesday, the FBMACE was traded in a narrow range, closing 11.64 points or 0.3% lower. As indicated by A, the FBMACE is still supported by the 4302 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and therefore, the 4302 Fibonacci Retracement is still the support for the FBMACE while the resistance remains at 4417 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands contracted another 43%, and the Bollinger Bands width is now very narrow. Generally, when the band width is at very narrow, it implies that the consolidation is almost near the end, and the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands is around the corner. When the Bollinger Bands re-expands, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a new movement.

As circled at B, the Stochastic is still floating around 50% level, due to the directionless movement of the FBMACE. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should start falling, and breaking below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal for the FBMACE.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still rising, while the Rounding Bottom is still in place. However, the MACD histogram has not broken above the zero level, and furthermore, the rising momentum of the MACD histogram is actually slowing down. Therefore, it pays to watch out for a Rounding Top formation, for if the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top, it would be a signal suggesting a weakening movement for the FBMACE.

Since the Bollinger Bands is very narrow now, it is about to start its new movement which has been prepared for a period of time. When the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with the FBMACE below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish signal, and the next support for the FBMACE is seen at 4187 Fibonacci Retracement.

Other wise, if the Bollinger Bands should expands with the FBMACE breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the FBMACE and it is likely that the FBMACE to test the 4417 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

富时大马 ACE 指数 2009年 12月 08日
富时大马创业板周二在窄幅中交易，按日下跌11.64点或0.3%。如图中箭头A所示，富时大马创业板依然在4302点的费氏线获得扶持，所以4302点的费氏线仍然是创业板目前的支持水平，阻力水平则继续是4417点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）周二进一步的收窄（-43%），这使到布林频带的幅度已经处于非常的狭窄。一般上，当布林频带处于非常狭窄时，往往暗示指数巩固已到尾声，而布林频带即将在近期内重新打开，届时便是新走势的开始。

如图中B圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续在50%水平徘徊，这是因为创业板周二在窄幅中交易所致。接下来若随机指标开始下跌，并跌破30%水平，那将是创业板短期转弱的讯号。

如图中箭头C所示，平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）仍然处于圆底（Rounding Bottom）的状况。这是创业板巩固或技术反弹的讯号。不过，平均乖离振荡指标至今仍然未能上扬突破零轴，而且上扬的速度已稍微缓慢下来，所以接下来投资者要留意平均乖离振荡指标接下来是否会形成圆顶（Rounding Top）。若振荡指标形成圆顶时，将是创业板巩固结束而开始转弱的讯号。

由于布林频带已经明显的收窄，这表示创业板继续酝酿着一个新的走势，而新的走势则即将在布林频带重新打开是显现出来。若布林频带重新打开时创业板依然处于布林中频带以下，那将是创业板开始形成跌势的讯号，而下一道支持水平将落在4187点。相反的，若布林频带重新打开时创业板则成功上扬突破布林中频带，那创业板有望转强而上探4417点的阻力线。