Dollar Rally or BLS Conjuring Trick?

The US Dollar Index is testing resistance at 76.6. Twiggs Momentum Oscillator (21-day) breakout above recent highs (-1.5%) indicates a stronger correction than the brief retracements over the past few months suggested.

Penetration of the declining trendline signals that the primary down-trend is weakening. And bullish divergence on Twiggs Momentum Oscillator (63-day) warns of a reversal.

The dollar rally was initially spurred by a Bureau of Labor Statistics report of surprisingly low job losses for November. Jeff Nielson, however, points out that their monthly figure of 10,000 job losses does not tally with weekly layoff stats. The market is in equilibrium (with zero job losses) when weekly layoffs are around the 300,000 mark, but November layoffs have been averaging close to 500,000 per week — which would indicate job losses of around 1 million for the month. Let us hope that this is not another BLS conjuring trick.